Market Performance Framework

1. Market Overview:

   The markets are dancing into year-end, but the VIX is keeping us on our toes with a recent spike (up 32.95% over 5 days!). The Dow’s holding steady at $42,840, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are cautiously navigating macro jitters. It’s the classic mix of holiday optimism and year-end volatility.

2. Key Focus Area:

   The VIX at $18.36 is bullish but cooling, suggesting traders might be winding down for the holidays—or bracing for surprises. Tech-heavy Nasdaq shows a tight trade range, hinting at opportunity if you can time it right. The volume drop? Probably a sign of traders hitting the eggnog early.

3. Current Outlook:

   Volatility is rising, with a strong VIX-UUP correlation (81.14%), signaling dollar strength is playing a big role. The VVIX moving averages are saying, “Stay sharp—turbulence isn’t done yet.” For now, the market feels like it’s holding its breath for the next big catalyst.

4. Long-Term View:

   Looking ahead, it’s all about inflation, rates, and potential consumer slowdown in 2025. Macro themes like tech regulation and trade will keep things interesting. Resilience remains the name of the game, but don’t count out surprises.

5. Closing Speculation:

   Will 2025 start with a bang or a whimper? The data is sending mixed signals, so stay nimble. The markets love to surprise—are you ready for the next move?

Volatility Corner Framework

1. Indicator Update:

   The VIX Daily Trade Range is showing signs of life after a recent spike, but it’s settling into a more stable pattern. The current level of $18.36, while bullish, suggests traders are cautious but not panicked. For perspective, falling volatility here could pave the way for a steady market, but the turbulence indicator hints we’re not out of the woods just yet.

2. Technical Context:

   The VIX’s recent spike above $20 briefly shook up the market but has since retreated below critical resistance levels. The red “Sell Top” line suggests a ceiling around $24.65, while the green “Buy Bottom” is holding near $9.89. These levels act as guardrails, signaling the market’s potential range. A fall below $12.84 (action line) could indicate a return to calmer waters, while a breach above $18.75 signals renewed market fear.

3. Risk Assessment:

   With the VIX-UUP correlation at 81.14%, dollar strength is a key driver of current sentiment. Rising volatility combined with a strong dollar could dampen risk appetite. Add in the VVIX’s elevated levels, and we’ve got a recipe for some continued uncertainty. The biggest risk? An unexpected macro shock that reignites fear—think inflation surprises or geopolitical tensions.

4. Historical Parallels:

   The turbulence seen here mirrors late-2022, where the VIX spiked briefly before moderating. Back then, markets absorbed the volatility and pushed higher once the dust settled. If history repeats, we could see a similar pattern with a few weeks of consolidation before the next directional move.

5. Actionable Insight:

   Stay vigilant but don’t overreact. The market’s fear gauge is flashing caution but not screaming panic. For traders, this is a “watch the levels” moment—pay attention to the VIX’s next move around $18.75. For investors, it’s a time to remain disciplined and prepared for turbulence while keeping an eye on long-term opportunities. Patience will pay off here!

MACRO INDICATOR:

• MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 8/24/24🟢

• MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 12/19/24🛑

New Highs $5-$20:

1. KC - Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd ADR - Technology - China - 🇨🇳

2. FNKO - Funko Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

3. GRRR - Gorilla Technology Group Inc - Technology - United Kingdom - 🇬🇧

4. ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc - Healthcare - United States - 🇺🇸

5. GRND - Grindr Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

6. GDYN - Grid Dynamics Holdings Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

KC - Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd ADR - Technology - China - 🇨🇳

FNKO - Funko Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

GRRR - Gorilla Technology Group Inc - Technology - United Kingdom - 🇬🇧

ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc - Healthcare - United States - 🇺🇸

GRND - Grindr Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

GDYN - Grid Dynamics Holdings Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

New Highs $20+:

1. EDR - Endeavor Group Holdings Inc - Communication Services - USA - 🇺🇸

2. CLBT - Cellebrite DI Ltd - Technology - Israel - 🇮🇱

3. RELY - Remitly Global Inc - Technology - USA - 🇺🇸

4. SLM - SLM Corp - Financial - USA - 🇺🇸

5. WAY - Waystar Holding Corp - Healthcare - USA - 🇺🇸

6. KVYO - Klaviyo Inc - Technology - USA - 🇺🇸

7. IONQ - IonQ Inc - Technology - USA - 🇺🇸

8. URBN - Urban Outfitters Inc - Consumer Cyclical - USA - 🇺🇸

9. ALK - Alaska Air Group Inc - Industrials - USA - 🇺🇸

10. DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp - Consumer Cyclical - USA - 🇺🇸

11. AAPL - Apple Inc - Technology - USA - 🇺🇸

EDR - Endeavor Group Holdings Inc - Communication Services - USA - 🇺🇸

CLBT - Cellebrite DI Ltd - Technology - Israel - 🇮🇱

RELY - Remitly Global Inc - Technology - USA - 🇺🇸

SLM - SLM Corp - Financial - USA - 🇺🇸

WAY - Waystar Holding Corp - Healthcare - USA - 🇺🇸

KVYO - Klaviyo Inc - Technology - USA - 🇺🇸

IONQ - IonQ Inc - Technology - USA - 🇺🇸

URBN - Urban Outfitters Inc - Consumer Cyclical - USA - 🇺🇸

ALK - Alaska Air Group Inc - Industrials - USA - 🇺🇸

DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp - Consumer Cyclical - USA - 🇺🇸

AAPL - Apple Inc - Technology - USA - 🇺🇸

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