Market Performance

• Market Overview: The VIX had a suddenly nice week of new highs. The VIX was up 2.81% for the week. Big change to recent history and indexes reflected it. Only 1 index was up this week and I was wrong last week, it wasn’t the DIA. This week was led by the Nasdaq.

• Key Focus Area: I’ll still be looking at the Dow Jones in the coming weeks. But if I’m being honest, I’m trying to get call options on companies which cater to the richest people in the world. Why? Because I expect US Tax cuts by June of 2025, huge spending bills and stimulus coming from the US Congress by December of 2025. It’s a pretty basic playbook but no matter what, money will be flowing for the next 12-18 months! Why not be long?

• Current Outlook and Indicators: The Turbulence Indicator is in a wonderful spot but it really can only go down from here. That’s my short-term fear. In the long-term any weakness is my opportunity. This week I was very active in buying 6-9+ month call options on high momentum, high beta stocks in the US market.

• Long-Term View: Looking out 12-18 months, my theory is we’ll see a market and economy shaped by tax cuts, deficit reduction, increased defense spending, tariffs, and deportations. It’s an outlook that’s generally inflationary and growth-stimulating, but things could evolve.

• Closing Speculation or Questions: For now, the question is: what happens next? Does the market stay steady, or will a surprise flip this picture upside down? Let’s watch and wait.

Volatility Corner:

1. Indicator Update:

   • We saw no major drop in the Turbulence Indicator this week. It’s still high and rising. But it’s can’t rise forever, or can it? The higher it goes, the better markets perform.

2. Technical Context:

   • Indexes were choppy which reflected the VIX getting smashed lower and eventually having the regular chop.

3. Actionable Insight:

   • I’ll be patient and wait for more weakness (if it comes).

MACRO INDICATOR:

• MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 8/24/24🟢

• MICRO WEATHER: BULLISH Since 11/8/24🟢

New Highs $5-$20:

1. SOUN - SoundHound AI Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

2. CRK - Comstock Resources, Inc - Energy - United States - 🇺🇸

3. LOMA - Loma Negra Compania Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anonima ADR - Basic Materials - Argentina - 🇦🇷

4. VIAV - Viavi Solutions Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

5. VUZI - Vuzix Corp - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸 (Sub $5)

6. MTTR - Matterport Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

SOUN - SoundHound AI Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

CRK - Comstock Resources, Inc - Energy - United States - 🇺🇸

LOMA - Loma Negra Compania Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anonima ADR - Basic Materials - Argentina - 🇦🇷

VIAV - Viavi Solutions Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

VUZI - Vuzix Corp - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸 

MTTR - Matterport Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

New Highs $20+:

1. CEVA - CEVA Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

2. WRBY - Warby Parker Inc - Healthcare - United States - 🇺🇸

3. VSCO - Victoria's Secret & Co - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

4. URBN - Urban Outfitters Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

5. BMA - Banco Macro S.A. ADR - Financial - Argentina - 🇦🇷

6. INFY - Infosys Ltd ADR - Technology - India - 🇮🇳

7. AS - Amer Sports Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Finland - 🇫🇮

8. TWLO - Twilio Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

9. RH - RH (Restoration Hardware) - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

10. UPST - Upstart Holdings Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

CEVA - CEVA Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

WRBY - Warby Parker Inc - Healthcare - United States - 🇺🇸

VSCO - Victoria's Secret & Co - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

URBN - Urban Outfitters Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

BMA - Banco Macro S.A. ADR - Financial - Argentina - 🇦🇷

INFY - Infosys Ltd ADR - Technology - India - 🇮🇳

AS - Amer Sports Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Finland - 🇫🇮

TWLO - Twilio Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

RH - RH (Restoration Hardware) - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

UPST - Upstart Holdings Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

_Disclaimer:

_{THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.}

_{The information contained on this website has been prepared based on publicly available information and proprietary research. The author does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this document. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice.}

_{Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. Except where otherwise indicated, the information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and the author undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional materials.}

_{The author, the author’s affiliates, and clients of the author’s affiliates may currently have long or short positions in the securities of certain of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.}

_{Neither the author nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein. In addition, nothing presented herein shall constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any security.}