Market Performance Framework

1. Market Overview:

   • A short week markets 📉might have been what markets needed. Over the weekend, we haven’t seen much messaging around tariffs, economy or International relations. Silence from the White House is golden 🏆. But we still have the new chirping of ole Jerome which can rattle markets too. Fingers crossed 🤞 we have light messaging from the US 🇺🇸 for the next couple weeks. If things can play out organically, the business cycle will still continue to offer counter-trends opportunities.

Volatility Corner Framework

1. Indicator Update:

   • We’re in stable condition but far worse than it was 6-7 weeks ago. There is nothing like a massive drop in the market to wake up the passive index crowd. It’s about now folks are noticing their 401k isn’t funded as much as expected. So I don’t know if more volatility is on the horizon but I think we have more people bracing for pain. Which sometimes can become self-fulling.

2. Technical Context:

   • The $VIX ( ▼ 6.96% ) range is wide — but I think mid-30s to high-teens are now likely for the next week or 2. There could be a fall back into the low 10s but it should take us until mid-summer to forget this pain.

3. Risk Assessment:

   • Risks are too high still. You can see on the turbulence indicator, we are still way down in the depths of pail. Anything under 4 or 5 has to be considered choppy-to-risky market conditions.

4. Historical Parallels:

5. Actionable Insight:

• I’ll trade small or buy long-calls into 2027. I’d like nothing more than to forget about his market and use it for the eventual BULL MARKET.

MACRO INDICATOR:

• MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 3/7/25🛑

• MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 2/21/25🛑

New Highs $5-$20:

1. GRND – Grindr Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 United States

2. HNRG – Hallador Energy Co – Energy – 🇺🇸 United States

3. HTZ – Hertz Global Holdings Inc – Industrials – 🇺🇸 United States

4. YALA – Yalla Group Limited ADR – Technology – 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

GRND – Grindr Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 United States

HNRG – Hallador Energy Co – Energy – 🇺🇸 United States

HTZ – Hertz Global Holdings Inc – Industrials – 🇺🇸 United States

YALA – Yalla Group Limited ADR – Technology – 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

New Highs $20+:

1. PM – Philip Morris International Inc – Consumer Defensive – 🇺🇸 United States

2. HDB – HDFC Bank Ltd. ADR – Financial – 🇮🇳 India

3. EWP – iShares MSCI Spain ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

4. EFAV – iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

5. CPK – Chesapeake Utilities Corp – Utilities – 🇺🇸 United States

6. BOXX – Alpha Architect 1–3 Month Box ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

PM – Philip Morris International Inc – Consumer Defensive – 🇺🇸 United States

HDB – HDFC Bank Ltd. ADR – Financial – 🇮🇳 India

EWP – iShares MSCI Spain ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

EFAV – iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

CPK – Chesapeake Utilities Corp – Utilities – 🇺🇸 United States

BOXX – Alpha Architect 1–3 Month Box ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

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