Market Performance Framework

1. Market Overview:

   • The $VIX ( ▼ 6.96% ) hasn’t had a weekly close below $18 since 2/21/25 — We are entering our 8th week in a row.

2. Key Focus Area:

   • Indexes are not the area for me. Commodities, specifically GOLD. It’s important to follow BULL MARKETS if you’re long-only like me. Metals or cash can sustain me for at least another week while I wait to see where positive performance will start to shine.

3. Current Outlook and Indicators:

   • Indexes have another shot at rebounding this week. Asian markets on Sunday will tell us a lot because I’m expecting world markets to bottom first. Because the USA is decoupling from the world and adding friction to trade, those with less friction will grow more easily and faster. Uncertainty will delay progress in trade for the USA unfortunately.

4. Long-Term View:

   • The long-term view here is hazy. Eventually we will bottom and the comparisons to this period will be easy. 2026 has an opportunity to look very BULLISH. Again, I’ll be patient.

5. Closing Speculation or Questions:

   • The question for April and this week is, was that a dead cat bounce or a new base level? In another way, have we seen the highs in the VIX or do we have more surprises to come this spring?

Volatility Corner Framework

1. Indicator Update:

   • The Turbulence Indicator snapped back at the end of the week. As expected any up move will be massive. The indicator itself rallied up 20%+ this week which shows the strength of counter-trend bounces in this environment.

   • Be wary. Volatility is high yet stable at these levels. We need massive breaks (Sub $20) in VIX for weeks to see the Turbulence indicator even change character from the past 5 weeks.

2. Technical Context:

   • We are back at levels not seen since the early part of 2023. We have an opportunity for a BULLISH trend change. But the speed of this transition to BEARISH needs to be respected. As Jamie Dimon said, “We’re not in Kansas anymore: economy, inflation, interest rates, asset prices, trade wars, oh my!”

3. Risk Assessment:

   • Risks are very high. Retaliation from other countries, the response from Trump or simply market conditions changing due to some blow up in Japan. We’re in a place where the ranges are wide due to volatility and the prices are jumping.

4. Historical Parallels:

   • The only recent similar parallel to this moment in US volatility is March 2020 and Covid. Before this there was Q4, 2018 and the fed but nothing this dramatic which isn’t purely based on economic factors.

5. Actionable Insight:

   • I’m primarily in Gold and short-term bonds. I’ll keep position sizes small and watch to see if any specific sector gets the bid. Patience is most important for the next month or more. The question for today is, is this a dead cat bounce or a new normal level. Have we seen the highs in the VIX or do we have more surprises to come this spring?

MACRO INDICATOR:

• MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 3/7/25🛑

• MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 2/21/25🛑

New Highs $5-$20:

1. ARMN – Aris Mining Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

2. FSM – Fortuna Mining Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

3. IAG – Iamgold Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

4. AEVA – Aeva Technologies Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 USA

5. SAND – Sandstorm Gold Ltd – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

6. ORLA – Orla Mining Ltd – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

7. KGC – Kinross Gold Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

8. HMY – Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd ADR – Basic Materials – 🇿🇦 South Africa

9. GRPN – Groupon Inc – Communication Services – 🇺🇸 USA

10. EGO – Eldorado Gold Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

11. OR – Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

ARMN – Aris Mining Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

FSM – Fortuna Mining Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

IAG – Iamgold Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

AEVA – Aeva Technologies Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 USA

SAND – Sandstorm Gold Ltd – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

ORLA – Orla Mining Ltd – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

KGC – Kinross Gold Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

HMY – Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd ADR – Basic Materials – 🇿🇦 South Africa

GRPN – Groupon Inc – Communication Services – 🇺🇸 USA

EGO – Eldorado Gold Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

OR – Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

New Highs $20+:

1. TFPM – Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

2. GFI – Gold Fields Ltd ADR – Basic Materials – 🇿🇦 South Africa

3. PHYS – Sprott Physical Gold Trust – Financial – 🇨🇦 Canada

4. CEF – Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust – Financial – 🇨🇦 Canada

5. AGI – Alamos Gold Inc – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

6. AU – AngloGold Ashanti Plc – Basic Materials – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

7. SNRE – Sunrise Communications AG ADR – Communication Services – 🇨🇭 Switzerland

8. JNVR – Janover Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 USA

9. PPC – Pilgrim's Pride Corp – Consumer Defensive – 🇺🇸 USA

10. WPM – Wheaton Precious Metals Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

11. TJX – TJX Companies, Inc. – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 USA

12. CASY – Casey's General Stores, Inc. – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 USA

TFPM – Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

GFI – Gold Fields Ltd ADR – Basic Materials – 🇿🇦 South Africa

PHYS – Sprott Physical Gold Trust – Financial – 🇨🇦 Canada

CEF – Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust – Financial – 🇨🇦 Canada

AGI – Alamos Gold Inc – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

AU – AngloGold Ashanti Plc – Basic Materials – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

JNVR – Janover Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 USA

PPC – Pilgrim's Pride Corp – Consumer Defensive – 🇺🇸 USA

WPM – Wheaton Precious Metals Corp – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

TJX – TJX Companies, Inc. – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 USA

🚀 Unveiling the Swift Trader Spotlight: The Pioneer Newsletter 📈

🚀 Unveiling the Swift Trader Spotlight: The Pioneer Newsletter 📈

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_{THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.}

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🚀 Unveiling the Swift Trader Spotlight: The Pioneer Newsletter 📈

Hey Bootleg Macro enthusiasts! We're ecstatic to introduce the Swift Trader Spotlight: The Pioneer Newsletter. Delve into daily briefings that take you far beyond mere trend tracking. Experience rich insights, paired with compelling visuals directly from the Swift Trader Chrome Extension. Additionally, stay updated with our 5-minute video briefings four times a week and nightly dispatches detailing trend flips for SPY & QQQ.

Special Offer: To celebrate, all "New High Newsletter" subscribers get their first week of The Pioneer Newsletter for FREE!

🔗 Discover More & Subscribe Here: [Your Link Here]

Elevate your trading acumen with curated insights and in-depth market coverage. Navigate the stock market's ever-changing trends like never before. #PioneerInsights #TradeSmarterWithSwift #SwiftTraderSpotLight