From $WOOF to $AAPL: A Bullish Outlook on Market Leaders

This week in the New High Newsletter, the market continues it’s BULL RUN. We’re in a BULL MARKET. S&P500 hit all-time-highs AGAIN! DOW JONES was down but CRM had a hell of week and can carry the DOW now.The New-Highs $5-$20 are filled with tech names. My personal favorites are $WOOF,...

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Bootleg Macro
December 08, 2024

This week in the New High Newsletter, the market continues it’s BULL RUN. We’re in a BULL MARKET. S&P500 hit all-time-highs AGAIN! DOW JONES was down but CRM had a hell of week and can carry the DOW now.

The New-Highs $5-$20 are filled with tech names. My personal favorites are $WOOF $OLO $PTON $GRND - The rest are great but I’ll track these ones.

The New Highs 20+ are filled with brand name tech. I think if I can’t make money in the leaders, I can’t make money. $SHOP returns. $AAPL had the week, I predicted last week. $COIN $DDOG even Walmart $WMT had the list this week.

In the Turbulence Indicator section, you’ll see the market has the wind at it’s back with volatility collapsing since the election. We’re getting due for at least a consolidation and possibly a pullback. No time table but I’ll be eyes open.

Finally, this week will possibly be defined by PPI on Thursday. We have other major releases but volatility will probably coil into Thursday. And predictably unwind in the afternoon.

- Dustin

Market Performance

Markets are reflecting the vix. Well inverse. You get it. We’ve seen a collapse. Destruction of some greek has brought a BULL MARKET back! We see SPY, all-time-high! Nasdaq the same. Dow lost a little steam.

This week I plot around the DIA and it’s holdings. $CRM looks positive and others. But, I won’t get too caught up. Real juice is in small caps, duh!

We can continue to expect business as usual for the next 6 weeks until the inauguration. Unless the turbulence indicator, which is at a 3 month high - that’s good for stocks, flips down due to mean reversion or some huge shock. But what happens next?

For now, my outlook is 12-18 months from now is a market and US economy with tax cuts, deficit reduction, defense spending, tariffs and deportations. Generally inflationary and growth stimulating. That’s my THEORY for now. It can change.

Volatility Corner:

Market Turbulence Indicator improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. You see the up and down…we are back above the 23 Week Moving Average. Which is significant.

The risk is mean reversion. No major catalyst. Simply options expirations, twitchy fingers and bored traders. I mentioned the Great Bull Awakens a couple weeks ago. Now we have over a month of all-time-highs. It can’t last forever. But it can last longer than anyone imagines.

Stay patient for now. But we must stay vigilant. You can see back to summer 2023 - we’ve been choppy when we hit that high. We’re back up near 7.00 which seems to be a place we don’t stay long.

MACRO INDICATOR:

Long-term, we are in a BULL MARKET. Daily, we are in a BEAR MARKET

  • MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 8/24/24🟢

  • MICRO WEATHER: BULLISH Since 11/8/24🟢

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New Highs $5-$20:

  1. WOOF - Petco Health and Wellness Co Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

  2. REAL - The RealReal Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

  3. OLO - Olo Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

  4. UEC - Uranium Energy Corp - Energy - United States - 🇺🇸

  5. PTON - Peloton Interactive Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

  6. NWG - NatWest Group Plc ADR - Financial - United Kingdom - 🇬🇧

  7. SUPV - Grupo Supervielle S.A. ADR - Financial - Argentina - 🇦🇷

  8. WEAV - Weave Communications Inc - Healthcare - United States - 🇺🇸

  9. GRND - Grindr Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

  10. AAL - American Airlines Group Inc - Industrials - United States - 🇺🇸

WOOF - Petco Health and Wellness Co Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

REAL - The RealReal Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

OLO - Olo Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

This is worth a major flyer. This has massive possiblility of a run to $100 in this one.

UEC - Uranium Energy Corp - Energy - United States - 🇺🇸

Very low volatility and the range is starting to inflect higher.

PTON - Peloton Interactive Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

$10 to me is a great price on Peloton for a long-term.

NWG - NatWest Group Plc ADR - Financial - United Kingdom - 🇬🇧

SUPV - Grupo Supervielle S.A. ADR - Financial - Argentina - 🇦🇷

WEAV - Weave Communications Inc - Healthcare - United States - 🇺🇸

Another nice low volatility upward trend.

GRND - Grindr Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

This is a fantastic low volatility upward trend.

AAL - American Airlines Group Inc - Industrials - United States - 🇺🇸

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New Highs $20+:

  1. SHOP - Shopify Inc - Technology - Canada - 🇨🇦

  2. COIN - Coinbase Global Inc - Financial - United States - 🇺🇸

  3. AMZN - Amazon.com Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

  4. HPE - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

  5. ASAN - Asana Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

  6. META - Meta Platforms Inc - Communication Services - United States - 🇺🇸

  7. WMT - Walmart Inc - Consumer Defensive - United States - 🇺🇸

  8. COST - Costco Wholesale Corp - Consumer Defensive - United States - 🇺🇸

  9. NOW - ServiceNow Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

  10. ISRG - Intuitive Surgical Inc - Healthcare - United States - 🇺🇸

  11. DDOG - Datadog Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

  12. AAPL - Apple Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸 (You called it last week!)

SHOP - Shopify Inc - Technology - Canada - 🇨🇦

COIN - Coinbase Global Inc - Financial - United States - 🇺🇸

AMZN - Amazon.com Inc - Consumer Cyclical - United States - 🇺🇸

Phenomenal run in Amazon.

HPE - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

ASAN - Asana Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

META - Meta Platforms Inc - Communication Services - United States - 🇺🇸

WMT - Walmart Inc - Consumer Defensive - United States - 🇺🇸

COST - Costco Wholesale Corp - Consumer Defensive - United States - 🇺🇸

NOW - ServiceNow Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

ISRG - Intuitive Surgical Inc - Healthcare - United States - 🇺🇸

This has a bright future. Low volatility is what I like.

DDOG - Datadog Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸

Heck of a week for DDOG. A bit of room to the upside from here but I’ll be patient.

AAPL - Apple Inc - Technology - United States - 🇺🇸 

Best idea from last week - up nice for the week.

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