Market Performance Framework

1. Market Overview:

   • Did Friday’s price action scare you? Well maybe the market’s uncertainty surrounding the US governments funding in March is clouding it’s vision. Because we should be expecting tax cuts, government spending and moderate growth/inflation into summer. Those are all moderately bullish factors for the market.

2. Key Focus Area:

   • In a moderate growth environment, I’ll focus on massive growth stocks. As shocking as it seems, I’m looking at things like AT&T or Mr. Cooper (mortgage servicer) because domestic businesses have an upper hand in earnings.

3. Current Outlook and Indicators:

   • The VIX showed a massive breakout due to Friday’s sell off. This should be short-lived but it can offer opportunities. Downside slides will give prices you’ll wish for in July of 2025. This is how I’m viewing the recent volatility.

4. Long-Term View:

   • Long-term like 12-18 months from now, I could see massive government deficits. Tax cuts implemented and a resolution to the Ukraine-Russia war. It looks BULLISH still but I’ll be wary of any major changes.

5. Closing Speculation or Questions:

   • Indexes all need to carry through and close higher by April 1st…which means…these prices are going to be fantastic entries if this BULL MARKET continues into the summer. What will you wish you did in July 2025? Because you can make wonderful decisions this week.

Volatility Corner Framework

1. Indicator Update:

   • The turbulence indicator slashed lower. Historically, down moves during this sideways channel are BULLISH. We can talk headlines, expectations, rate cuts, tariffs, tweets or whatever…history says ignore and buy the dip. I’ll follow it unless I see the indexes break their 5 month rolling positive returns.

   • We’ve been in this sideways channel since 7/24/23 - markets are up over 50% since then!

2. Technical Context:

   • The VIX can break up to $20 but I don’t suspect anything sustained above the level. We should see this as opportunity to enter into the market for the summer breakouts. (That’s how I’m playing this setup.)

3. Risk Assessment:

   • Long-term optimistic. Short-term realistic. Medium-term, agnostic to anything except paradigm shifting panics.

4. Actionable Insight:

   • I’m buying dips and DCA into growth indexes. What is my other choice? Expect a BEARISH turn in a world gaining certainty?

MACRO INDICATOR:

• MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 1/24/25🟢

• MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 12/26/24🟢

New Highs $5-$20:

1. MOMO – Hello Group Inc ADR – Communication Services – China 🇨🇳

2. LX – LexinFintech Holdings Ltd ADR – Financial – China 🇨🇳

3. APLD – Applied Digital Corporation – Technology – USA 🇺🇸

4. NWG – NatWest Group Plc ADR – Financial – United Kingdom 🇬🇧

5. DX – Dynex Capital, Inc – Real Estate – USA 🇺🇸

6. SNCY – Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc – Industrials – USA 🇺🇸

7. XPEV – XPeng Inc ADR – Consumer Cyclical – China 🇨🇳

8. HSAI – Hesai Group ADR – Consumer Cyclical – China 🇨🇳

MOMO – Hello Group Inc ADR – Communication Services – China 🇨🇳

LX – LexinFintech Holdings Ltd ADR – Financial – China 🇨🇳

APLD – Applied Digital Corporation – Technology – USA 🇺🇸

NWG – NatWest Group Plc ADR – Financial – United Kingdom 🇬🇧

DX – Dynex Capital, Inc – Real Estate – USA 🇺🇸

SNCY – Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc – Industrials – USA 🇺🇸

XPEV – XPeng Inc ADR – Consumer Cyclical – China 🇨🇳

HSAI – Hesai Group ADR – Consumer Cyclical – China 🇨🇳

New Highs $20+:

• COOP – Mr. Cooper Group Inc – Financial – USA 🇺🇸

• WH – Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc – Consumer Cyclical – USA 🇺🇸

• FOX – Fox Corporation – Communication Services – USA 🇺🇸

• SBUX – Starbucks Corp – Consumer Cyclical – USA 🇺🇸

• T – AT&T, Inc – Communication Services – USA 🇺🇸

• ABT – Abbott Laboratories – Healthcare – USA 🇺🇸

• PM – Philip Morris International Inc – Consumer Defensive – USA 🇺🇸

• VRNA – Verona Pharma Plc ADR – Healthcare – United Kingdom 🇬🇧

COOP – Mr. Cooper Group Inc – Financial – USA 🇺🇸

FOX – Fox Corporation – Communication Services – USA 🇺🇸

WH – Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc – Consumer Cyclical – USA 🇺🇸

SBUX – Starbucks Corp – Consumer Cyclical – USA 🇺🇸

T – AT&T, Inc – Communication Services – USA 🇺🇸

ABT – Abbott Laboratories – Healthcare – USA 🇺🇸

PM – Philip Morris International Inc – Consumer Defensive – USA 🇺🇸

VRNA – Verona Pharma Plc ADR – Healthcare – United Kingdom 🇬🇧

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