20+ New Highs to Prove, It's STILL a BULL MARKET

Who do you believe pundits or price? Everyone is worried they will lose. It’s natural to be risk-averse. Humans survive due to our respect for risk. But when evidence shows itself you…believe it.

Author

Bootleg Macro
February 11, 2024

Doesn’t it seem like everything is scary and terrible in markets? When I watch youtube shows, everyone is selling fear.

“Is SPY 5000 time to sell?”

“Market-choppiness ahead?”

“Market surprise? We see one you might not!”

It’s all clickbait for views. None of it is for markets. The content of the internet has a general sentiment too. Just like markets. The question is, are you letting the sentiment impact your market view?

Don’t.

Everyone is worried they will get rug pulled again? Yes, it’s true in 2021 when the good-times were rolling…people did get rug pulled.

But remember…that was due to bad actors (Raoul Pal), not the markets themselves. Markets have both sinners and saints. Patrons, pensioners and prisoners.

Everyone is worried they will lose. It’s natural to be risk-averse. Humans survive due to our respect for risk.

But when evidence shows itself you…believe it. Listen to this talk with Jeremy Siegel, he lays out evidence of a BULLISH bias.

Bullishness is rampant right now. This week alone we saw S&P500 up 1.37%, Nasdaq up 2.31% and Dow Jones up 0.04%

Who do you believe pundits or price?

- Dustin

Market Performance

Below there are weekly charts for the S&P500 (.INX), Dow Jones (.DJI) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) - remind yourself, we see BULLISH sentiment on the weekly. Weekly sentiment is very LONG-TERM, this reflects MONTHLY SENTIMENT and QUARTERLY SENTIMENT.

The strongest BULLISH SIGNAL is HIGHER-HIGHs in the WEEKLY RANGE and HIGHER-LOWs. The reverse is true for BEARISH SIGNALS…but we see no BEARISHNESS in the index.

The index continues a steady rise. Red-days should be bought.

The DOW is doing well but tech is really starting to perform pulling the other indexes much more in the market recently.

Tech continues it’s dominance. All weakness will be bought by me.

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. You see the up and down…

Right now we see a bounce off the 23 week average of the ratio. We continue to see BULLISHNESS in indexes. Volatility has potential to flair up but we don’t see volatility trending, for now we see it going sideways.

Sideways volatility should give opportunities across the market. Stocks should be able to explore their entire range of possibilities. Which gives a nimble trader many setups per week, month and quarter.

Upside VIX potential be we stay subdued under $15.

We see upside potential in the VIX - makes sense with all indexes higher in their respective ranges.

MACRO INDICATOR:

Long-term, we are in a BULL MARKET. Daily, we are in a BEAR MARKET

  • MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 12/2/22🟢

  • MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 7/27/23🛑 *We ignore this for now and go long - trust price.

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New Highs $5-$20:

  1. UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. ADR - Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing - 🇧🇷

  2. ARDX - Ardelyx Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

  3. BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria ADR - Financial - Banks - Diversified - 🇪🇸

  4. GOGL - Golden Ocean Group Limited - Industrials - Marine Shipping - 🇧🇲

  5. ADEA - Adeia Inc - Technology - Software - Application - 🇺🇸

  6. EOLS - Evolus Inc - Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic - 🇺🇸

  7. LQDA - Liquidia Corp - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

  8. JBI - Janus International Group Inc - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸

  9. IRWD - Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc - Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic - 🇺🇸

  10. STNE - StoneCo Ltd - Technology - Software—Infrastructure - 🇧🇷

UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. ADR - Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing - 🇧🇷

ARDX - Ardelyx Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria ADR - Financial - Banks - Diversified - 🇪🇸

GOGL - Golden Ocean Group Limited - Industrials - Marine Shipping - 🇧🇲

ADEA - Adeia Inc - Technology - Software - Application - 🇺🇸

EOLS - Evolus Inc - Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic - 🇺🇸

LQDA - Liquidia Corp - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

JBI - Janus International Group Inc - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸

IRWD - Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc - Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic - 🇺🇸

STNE - StoneCo Ltd - Technology - Software—Infrastructure - 🇧🇷

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New Highs $20+:

  1. KD - Kyndryl Holdings Inc - Technology - Information Technology Services - 🇺🇸

  2. AEO - American Eagle Outfitters Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Retail - 🇺🇸

  3. CRDO - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd - Technology - Communication Equipment - 🇰🇾

  4. MFC - Manulife Financial Corp. - Financial - Insurance - Life - 🇨🇦

  5. FSLY - Fastly Inc - Technology - Software - Application - 🇺🇸

  6. PLTR - Palantir Technologies Inc - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸

  7. STLA - Stellantis N.V. - Consumer Cyclical - Auto Manufacturers - 🇳🇱

  8. CBAY - Cymabay Therapeutics Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

  9. FLEX - Flex Ltd - Technology - Electronic Components - 🇸🇬

  10. GCT - GigaCloud Technology Inc - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸

  11. ALPN - Alpine Immune Sciences Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

  12. S - SentinelOne Inc - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸

KD - Kyndryl Holdings Inc - Technology - Information Technology Services - 🇺🇸

AEO - American Eagle Outfitters Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Retail - 🇺🇸

CRDO - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd - Technology - Communication Equipment - 🇰🇾

MFC - Manulife Financial Corp. - Financial - Insurance - Life - 🇨🇦

I really perfer this type of low range breakout. Especially when volatility has fallen is now picking up with price rising.

FSLY - Fastly Inc - Technology - Software - Application - 🇺🇸

PLTR - Palantir Technologies Inc - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸

STLA - Stellantis N.V. - Consumer Cyclical - Auto Manufacturers - 🇳🇱

CBAY - Cymabay Therapeutics Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

FLEX - Flex Ltd - Technology - Electronic Components - 🇸🇬

GCT - GigaCloud Technology Inc - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸

ALPN - Alpine Immune Sciences Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

S - SentinelOne Inc - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸

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