Market Performance

The current trend is Bitcoin and for good reason. The top of the range is $76k now. Wild speculation is back on twitter, pumpers are pumping and we have restored flows.

Have we restored blockchain interest, creditability or long-term investment? I think not yet. (Credit Jim Bianco for helping me think of the nuance)

For now, we have number go up and all that comes with it. Don’t confuse flows with real market demand.

Back into the “Based” index review. Which if I’m not mistaken is actually where real growth is generated. Don’t tell the crypto maxis’.

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets.

My confusion on markets starts here. If there is any reservation of the bull market in my heart, it’s on this chart. We’re not obviously bullish, we’re not obviously bearish, we are mid. In the truest sense of the word “mid”, here we are suspended in elevated levels of the VIX.

Yet we persist bullish. So until further notice, we ignore this indicator unless the red line starts to really turn over. Blue and green take a backseat for the new couple weeks. Probably until Cinco De Mayo. (I can almost taste summer!)

MACRO INDICATOR:

• MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 3/2/22🟢

• MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 7/27/23🛑

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