• The New High Newsletter
  • Posts
  • The Bulls Are Back 🐂💥 But For How Long? — Navigating Market Extremes in the Volatility Vortex 🌪️📈

The Bulls Are Back 🐂💥 But For How Long? — Navigating Market Extremes in the Volatility Vortex 🌪️📈

Unraveling the Rally 🧶📊: Insightful Analysis 🕵️‍♂️💡 for the Astute Investor 💼🚀

Author

Bootleg Macro
November 12, 2023

We have a great mix of stocks this week. 📈 Bulls returned. 🐂 Breakouts rocketed higher. 🚀 Surprising to see Microsoft! 😲 It’s our lead stock in the breakouts above $20. 💹 The goal is to ride winners 🏇 and I’m not sick of winning. 🏆

But the question remains:

Is this a broad BULL market turn 📊 or is this a BEAR market rally? 🐻

Performance this week was largely positive. 👍 All indexes were up, some more than others. Nasdaq led the way up over 2.3% for the week! 🎉

It follows the theme I highlighted last week. Short-term bullishness. 🤑

I wrote last week, '...This allows for a potential massive short-squeeze which we know results in a market event.' - In the Market Performance section. 🗞️

I’ll cover the rest in the Volatility Corner below. 🌪️ If you want to skip the US index/ETF coverage, scroll right down to the New Highs section. ⬇️

Have a good week. 😊

- Dustin

Market Performance

Value is everywhere but for what price? 💭 As you can tell, indexes had a nice end to the week. 📈 But why? I believe the US dollar 💵 is reacting to a Japanese central bank easing. 🇯🇵

Continuous monetary easing is pumping up the strength of our dollar 💪💵. This might turn it into a wrecking ball for global markets 🌐🔨. Yet, such an unnatural move brings a multitude of other factors into the fray. 🎲🤔

Another factor, recession. 📉 Another factor, US Government Shutdown (it’s back!). ⚠️ Another factor, war and inflation acceleration. 🚨 We have enough catalysts to help us FINALLY go through our VERY NECESSARY RECESSION. 🔄

A strong dollar during a recession can lead to unexpected market behaviors—keep a vigilant eye on these "funky moves. 💹

Our belief is strong due to the indicators in the Volatility Corner. The setup is here. It’s time to execute.

A recession is good for business, long-term. 🌱 We shouldn't be delaying any longer. Let's make 2025 awesome. 🚀

Indexes are reflecting the BULLS coming back into the market. 🐂

Fantastic week long move. The middle of the week was a big uncomfortable but we ended higher.

Catalyst driven markets make unusual patterns.

Common patterns in all 3 indexes. Due to their high correlation to each other and macro catalysts.

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. You see the up and down…we are back above the 10 Week Moving Average.

Last week, I wondered if the BULL move was real. This week gave it more facts. If we continue upward it’s impossible to ignore. A blue line close above the red line is our proof. But does it happen?

The Blue line hasn’t been above the 10 week since, 7/28/23 - Interesting

MACRO INDICATOR:

Last week was good. It’s been better. Remember always. It’s a bear market. Yet for now, we have a little hope. Never lose hope.

🕒 Long-term, we are in a BEAR MARKET 📉🐻. Daily, we are in a BULL MARKET 📈🐂.

  • MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 10/27/22🛑

  • MICRO WEATHER: BULLISH Since 11/7/23🟢***

US Index ETF Review:

SPY

😣 As uncomfortable as it is, all the signals point to BULL behavior 📈🐂. I hope I don’t get my heart broken 💔 next week. 🤞

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 11/9/23🟢***

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/10/23🟢***

  • Future Price Path: Price to RISE Since 11/8/23🟢***

    Falling volatility and falling correlation = upward price

DIA

🤔 This isn’t a great move 🚶‍♂️👎, but everything is now BULLISH 📈🐂. Even VIX sentiment is RISK ON 🚦💡.

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 11/7/23🟢***

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/07/23🟢***

  • Future Price Path: RISE Since 11/2/23🟢***

Same falling volatility

QQQ

🐂💪 QQQ is the strongest bull market 📈🏆 out of all the US ETF index equvialents 🇺🇸🎢.

  • Trend BULLISH Since 11/08/23🟢***

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/08/23🟢***

  • Future Price Path: RISE Since 11/10/23🟢***

IWM

📉😬 Small Caps are incredibly bearish! The trend indicates a strong downward momentum 🐻💔

  • Trend: BEARISH Since 9/29/23🔴

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/6/23🟢***

  • Future Price Path: RISE Since 11/2/23🟢

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

New Highs $5-$20:

  1. OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation, United States 🇺🇸

  2. VIV - Telefônica Brasil S.A., Brazil 🇧🇷

  3. BVN - Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A., Peru 🇵🇪

  4. AVPT - AvePoint, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  5. TAST - Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  6. BGC - BGC Group, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  7. ITUB - Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A., Brazil 🇧🇷

OBDC - Blue Owl Capital Corporation, United States 🇺🇸

Honestly, I just like the name. The breakout is nice and it’s long-over due. The range terrifies me we are stuck. So I’ll be patient.

VIV - Telefônica Brasil S.A., Brazil 🇧🇷

Brazil has suddenly been hot with stocks.

BVN - Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A., Peru 🇵🇪

Another stock from South America. There is a shift happening.

AVPT - AvePoint, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

This is way above it’s trade range. The price is low but the volatility is pretty high right now. This breakout is far above the trade range. I’ll want to see it reset.

TAST - Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

And oldie but a goodie, this was big on the breakout lists in Summer of 2023. The trend continues.

BGC - BGC Group, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

This is a nice breakout too. I do appreciate how much time the price spent probing the top. A breakout after multiple probes has better opportunity to follow through.

ITUB - Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A., Brazil 🇧🇷

A healthy breakout but for now, very much at the top of the range. It’s easy to see a risk of mean-reversion.

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

New Highs $20+:

  1. MSFT - Microsoft Corporation, United States 🇺🇸

  2. ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  3. NOW - ServiceNow, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  4. ADBE - Adobe Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  5. MCK - McKesson Corporation, United States 🇺🇸

  6. MANH - Manhattan Associates, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  7. HLT - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  8. CAH - Cardinal Health, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  9. BRBR - BellRing Brands, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  10. GFF - Griffon Corporation, United States 🇺🇸

  11. CDRE - Cadre Holdings, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  12. POCT - Post Oak Bancshares, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

  13. GDHG - Golden Path Acquisition Corporation, United States 🇺🇸

MSFT - Microsoft Corporation, United States 🇺🇸

King Microsoft, the strongest stock in all the land. It’s supplanted $AAPL (for now) as the safest stock on the planet. I suspect it will get pilled into higher.

ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

This breakout is a massive. Clearly it’s up YTD but overcoming nearly 6 full months of sideways action (May - November). I think this breakout means something for the stock.

NOW - ServiceNow, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

This move doesn’t look good to me. The move are far to jagged from the lows to the highs. For me.

ADBE - Adobe Inc., United States 🇺🇸

Big name, with big catalysts, clear story and thematic support (A.I.) why not buy?

MCK - McKesson Corporation, United States 🇺🇸

This is a smooth trend. Very small range considering the price. 5% total range (% between bottom and top) and a break out, with expanding volatility. Let’s go!

MANH - Manhattan Associates, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

Do you consider this a breakout? The easy trend appears over. I’ll wait and watch.

HLT - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., United States 🇺🇸

I am surprised to see a travel stock reacting well but the sideways action in this space since mid-July does deserve some resolution.

CAH - Cardinal Health, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

I used to be long this stock but got out due more to boredom. 3 months of sideways action from July through October is a lot to handle when energy names were ripping.

BRBR - BellRing Brands, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

A very nice soft trend higher. Recently we’ve seen it chop in a wider range. Will monitor the volatility to see if we continue with a breakout or if it’s near a top.

GFF - Griffon Corporation, United States 🇺🇸

There is a serious change in trend recently. The range below shows it’s been consolidating gains since mid-July. It’s time to go again.

CDRE - Cadre Holdings, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

Nice move this week.

POCT - Post Oak Bancshares, Inc., United States 🇺🇸

An incredibly similar pattern to the overall indexes. Too much volatility for me but somme love this kind.

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

What service do we provide the reader? (Save You Time 🕰️🕰️🕰️)

The Price🏷️ of Loving ❤️Stocks📈

The biggest price we pay for a love of markets is the time 🕰️. Screen time. Sitting watching. No moving, no living, it’s silent and the same. Stop wasting time. Subscribe and get a finely designed list of company stocks to your inbox every Sunday morning ready for review.

If you spend more than 2 hours looking at charts a month, we can save you time and money. For FREE, you will get 100+ reviewed tickers sent your inbox. Get smarter about the markets without drowning in charts and wasting your life on screen time.

Take a break from the markets, let someone else send you curated, aggregated and finely designed breakouts. We see new action everyday. You don’t want to miss out on the next chance to join.

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

Get Connected: Follow @BootlegMacro

Model Builder Course:

  • I have a course. You build the tool you see me using in the videos. You get to build your own version of the same model you see me use in every video. I’m adding to it over time as well so you’ll get all updates I do to the course forever.

    Thank you,

    BootlegMacro

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

Disclaimer:
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
The information contained on this website has been prepared based on publicly available information and proprietary research. The author does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this document. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice.
Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. Except where otherwise indicated, the information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and the author undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional materials.
The author, the author’s affiliates, and clients of the author’s affiliates may currently have long or short positions in the securities of certain of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
Neither the author nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein. In addition, nothing presented herein shall constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any security.

Enjoying this? Probably not, it’s the disclaimer.

& Invite a friend.