Summer is Almost Over

Author

Bootleg Macro
August 11, 2024

Sorry for the long--time. Summer was personally difficult and I had to take a step back. I’ve started writing again and more importantly, I made something for you.

An app, I’ve been coding (not much this summer either) but I’ve started it again. You’ll images like:

These are the most important aspects of my larger model. The colors have meaning too (especially on price and volume)

This writing was from earlier in the week, so you’ll get my thoughts from last Sunday night which, I didn’t publish. I’ll modify this and add in 5 new longs instead of 20+ this week too.

Enjoy:

⚡️Embrace every minute. Seasons are too precious. Summer isn’t over but fall is in the air. In the north woods, acorns are falling each morning. Cool night breezes make mornings singing with new sounds of the season.

Air is alive in the mornings. Markets are alive too. Seasons are changing. Bullish trends give way to bear dips. Dips aren’t dips when trends are changing. It’s always the truth.

What we’ve seen this summer - since mid July is extraordinary. A tidal wave of liquidity moving from growth to defensive. Yields dropping and the TLT is rising, which means. Gold ⚜️, Utilities ⚡️ and Low Beta are getting the bid.

TLT shown below: 👇

The RED w/ WHITE background close (8/2-8/5) is at or above the top of the SELL TOP range. That’s extreme bullish signals in price and volume. I like to buy when it’s BULLISH and the price is in mint green (normal range).

Interesting but not surprising, $USO $OILK are moving higher again. They preceded the breakdowns in indexes, ETFS and single stocks. There has been a breakdown in the fundamental bullish thesis in 2024. The thesis was riding on slow growth and failing inflation.

But both are going in the wrong direction. Inflation fell but is stuck, growth slowed then stalled. We’re f*cked for now. Markets hate uncertainty and we don’t yet know the fed is cutting. We think, we hope, many people “know” the fed will cut but it’s not yet a fact. Markets trade in fact. In the short-term markets trade in narrative. Yet over the long-term, it’s always based on facts, figures and flows.

Since Summer 2024 is almost over, what happens next is as important as ever before. We have 2.5 weeks left of “Summer” in the traditional (non-earth fact) sense. So what will you do with the last bits of Summer 2024?

- Dustin

Market Performance

Sideways action signals strength these days. It’s an odd moment in global markets. The USA is in a draw down, Europe is mixed, Asia is mixed and yet India is near all-time highs.

Markets have tumbled since the middle of July. It’s staggering.

The Dow Jones has held up better

Nasdaq shows the breakdown in the growth factor across the whole market.

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. You see the up and down…we are below the green and red line which isn’t very good for risk going forward.

The market has reflected this indicators general sideways action. We’ve seen highs, lows and a mirada styles of stock moves. This isn’t a stock market, this is a market of stocks. A few lead the charge, when they breakdown or pullback, the market follows suit.

MACRO INDICATOR:

  • MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 8/9/24🛑

  • MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 7/27/23🛑

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Model Builder Course:

  • I have a course. You build the tool you see me using in the videos. You get to build your own version of the same model you see me use in every video. I’m adding to it over time as well so you’ll get all updates I do to the course forever.

    Thank you,

    BootlegMacro

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