Welcome to Summer 2023...the Season of Repayment

June 03, 2023

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What a Week:

Happy Saturday. First week of summer in the books! Now we’re done with the debt ceiling how did the market handle the news?

Market Performance:

The market started the week on a mixed note. Ending on highs as the debt ceiling was passed. Every single index ended up above 1% for the Friday session.

It’s a bull market in the Nasdaq (.IXIC) and the S&P 500 (.INX)

Debt Ceiling: Student Loan Repayment

There is no way a sudden restart of a debt repayment for 10s of millions of American’s doesn’t hurt the GDP. There will be winners and losers due to changing consumer behavior. Retail is hurt (see $TGT) but new banks get the bid.

  • $SOFI - Going higher due to expectations of the great student loan refinance.

    SOFI has gone so far, so fast!

Trillion for Your NVDA Chip?

What a move the past 20 days.

  • $NVDA hit the allusive $1T market cap. Is this the start of a run to $2T like Apple or the beginning of the end like it was for $META when they hit a $1T market cap? Time will tell.

    • For now the CEO is getting the type of reverence not seen since Cathy Wood in 2021. CNBC has found a new favorite company and CEO to talk about, Jensen Huang, CEO & Founder of Nvidia.

    • Here is explaining how his company builds A.I. chips:

LFO Summer Girls! Who is Buying Abercrombie and Fitch? $ANF?

Have you seen the stock of Abercrombie and Fitch? As an elder millennial I’m in shock. It’s up 56% in the rolling 1 year, whoa.

Who is buying $ANF are we in the 1990s?

If you need to trip down nostalgia lane, here is your favorite 90s song about Abercrombie and Fitch.

US Index Review:

What a week for $SPY. We were up 3.20% over the trailing 5 days. It’s a bull market.

  • Bullish Trend - You wanna fight this? I don’t.

  • Buy dips or don’t but I wouldn’t short if I used YOUR money.

What a week for $QQQ. We were up 4.39% over the trailing 5 days. It’s a bull market.

  • Bullish Trend - It’s been bullish since 5/16/23 - Ride the trend baby!

  • There is a lot of downside in the range.

What a week for $IWM We were up 4.51% over the trailing 5 days. Is it a bull market forming?

  • Bullish but with distain. Small caps aren’t participating yet. But this week could be the change.

  • There is a lot of downside in the range.

Sector Review:

Smooth trend with some bumps but up and to the right.

  • Bullish. Tech bid. This is heavily $META $GOOG $GOOL

  • Healthy bull market for now.

Bearish generally. A short candidate

  • Bearish overall. It’s not worth following for now.

  • $XLB is weak.

Oil in general has surprised many this year.

  • Bearish trend with aggressive volatility.

  • The energy space seems depressed.

I’ll give this no attention.

  • Bearish trend.

  • $XLF has been challenged his year.

All I think is “Buyer Beware”. Watch for Sudden Drops.

  • Bearish trend with a nice range. $100 is a big barrier.

  • I see no need to buy or own $XLI personally.

LFG!

  • Bullish trend since 5/22/23

  • Buy dips or don’t but it’s going up.

Surprising how poorly this has done.

  • Bearish trend since 2/14/23. Long term bear market here.

  • Sell signal since 4/26/23.

  • I’m long gold miners but this ETF gets no love.

Things changed quickly.

  • Bearish trend since 5/12/23

  • Sell signal since 5/19/23

Bearish surprise.

  • Bearish since 5/4/23

  • Sell signal since 5/17/23

Real Estate has been a yo-yo market. I see no true trend.

  • Bearish since 5/4/23 (This week flipped bullish on the daily but I’ll be patient before believing it.)

  • Sell signal since 5/17/23

XLY is worth a serious look.

  • Bullish since 5/31/23

  • Buy signal since 5/11/23

Healthcare saw a sizable pullback for the past 8 weeks

  • Bearish since 5/12/23

  • Sell signal since 5/18/23

New Highs of The Week $5 - $20

  1. ETNB - Biotechnology

  2. IAS - Advertising Agencies

  3. VRRM - Infrastructure Operations

  4. ASX - Semiconductors

  5. CVII - Shell Companies

  6. ZUO - Software Infrastructure

  7. HLIT - Communication Equipment

  8. ARLO - Building Products & Equipment

  9. GSIT - Semiconductors

  10. AVPT - Software Infrastructure

  11. UGP - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

New High after a big move. Nice to see continuation.

Nice pullback it seems.

I like the clear trend change. When it broke above the 15 EMA

This is a boom-bust style stock. I’d avoid until a pullback.

I love low volatility, steady trends.

Whoever nailed the catalyst is happy. It needs to pullback in my perspective.

Nice move so far.

Interesting pattern. I’d be long from this level.

I prefer slow bull markets. This explosion is probably over but it’s a nice long-term idea.

Nice and smooth.

A little jerky trend.

New Highs of The Week $20+

  1. MLNK - Software - Application

  2. SKT - REIT Retail

  3. BASE - Software Infrastructure

  4. EXTR - Communication Equipment

  5. TCMD - Med Device

  6. VECO - Semiconductors

  7. CHAT - Gen AI

  8. HMC - Auto Manufacturers

I like the moves. It’s straight up but actually probably low volatility.

Nice base breakout.

Nice move. I like the memorable ticker too.

Gigantic 15 days! Up 31%+

Personally, I’ve enjoy this low volatility breakout. I’d like to see the 15D rolling get back in double digits.

Nice move.

It’s too new to use my tool but I love the theme of Generative A.I. for the momentum.

I’m surprised I saw Honda Motors but up 7.25% in 15 day…interesting.

Next Week:

Apple Conference: Do we get a headset from Apple?

OPEC Meeting: Do we get higher gas prices?

Note: I would have used a more reputable source to report on OPEC. But western media was banned.

Thanks for reading to this point. I hope you found this informative, interesting and worthy of sharing.

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