Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. A couple weeks back, I suggested the move in the Turbulence indicator was one to ignore. The bearish look was to be faded and it seems I’ve been proven right in the past couple weeks.

We see a very big expansion in commodities, indexes and specific companies leading the modern market narrative. This all does make volatility rise but it doesn’t need to kill a bull market. All we need to do is open our minds to the possibilities of moderate price increases, margin increases and labor taking a greater share of profits than investors.

This transition is fundamental in nature yet it’s impact ripple into market behavior. The volatility in my opinion is showing up in market but is happening in negotiations for labor unions, tariffs being imposed and protectionist nature sweeping global leadership.

MACRO INDICATOR:

• MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 12/2/22🟢

• MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 7/27/23🛑

New Highs $5-$20:

1. SUPV - Grupo Supervielle S.A. - Financial - Argentina 🇦🇷

2. ADMA - ADMA Biologics Inc - Healthcare - USA 🇺🇸

3. BBAR - Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. - Financial - Argentina 🇦🇷

4. WTTR - Select Energy Services Inc - Energy - USA 🇺🇸

5. ALIT - Alight Inc - Technology - USA 🇺🇸

6. HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp - Basic Materials - USA 🇺🇸

7. TEVA - Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited - Healthcare - Israel 🇮🇱

8. GEO - The GEO Group Inc - Industrials - USA 🇺🇸

9. KEY - KeyCorp - Financial - USA 🇺🇸

10. AROC - Archrock Inc - Energy - USA 🇺🇸

SUPV - Grupo Supervielle S.A. - Financial - Argentina 🇦🇷

A rage breakout is how I describe what’s happening in Argentina. It’s pent up bullish demand unlocked in price action. Recent performance is no indication of future performance but it’s the best signal you have for now. The strong signals coming from Argentina can not be ignored.

ADMA - ADMA Biologics Inc - Healthcare - USA 🇺🇸

Biotech continues to be a bull market leader. We see these small caps taking off too giving us an indication breadth is improving. The way price is acting, I’d expected a continued move into the summer. Strong signals.

BBAR - Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. - Financial - Argentina 🇦🇷

This is one of the rare situations where volatility breaks out and the price rises. These Argentina stocks have huge thrusts of bullish price action. These counter patterns which are still bullish means even more attention should be paid. Strong signals.

WTTR - Select Energy Services Inc - Energy - USA 🇺🇸

The price is perfect but the path is concerning. Don’t like the major explosion in volatility recently which led the price lower into the first week of March. Average/weak signals.

ALIT - Alight Inc - Technology - USA 🇺🇸

A 52-week high is important. ALIT hit a multi-year high this week. The price should be watched. We can expected further momentum going into Q2, 2024. Strong signals for now.

HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp - Basic Materials - USA 🇺🇸

The price has risen conservatively over the past few months. It seems like a consolidation as been happening since the end of 2023. The first quarter maybe the setup for the rest of 2024. Average signals.

TEVA - Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited - Healthcare - Israel 🇮🇱

Impressive trend. This trend has been stronger many months ago than it is now. The volatility has been falling for the whole month of March, which is obvious by seeing the price action. Slow and steady to the top right. Strong signal.

GEO - The GEO Group Inc - Industrials - USA 🇺🇸

The most consistent trend on the list this week. It’s been a very volatile ride for the past few months but the price is up over 30% in 3 months and over 78% in 6 months. It’s been worth it. Strong signals.

KEY - KeyCorp - Financial - USA 🇺🇸

This maybe the ugliest chart out of them all this week. Key has a new high but the volatility here is disgusting. It whipsaws back and forth too much for consistency. Weak/Average Signals.

AROC - Archrock Inc - Energy - USA 🇺🇸

The peak of $20 seems to be a strong wall for AROC. The price action from Friday appears to be a signal. A warning shot of sorts but overall, this thing is going higher. Average signals.

New Highs $20+:

1. ESI - Element Solutions Inc - Basic Materials - USA 🇺🇸

2. VRRM - Verra Mobility Corporation - Industrials - USA 🇺🇸

3. AVTR - Avantor, Inc. - Healthcare - USA 🇺🇸

4. GGAL - Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. - Financial - Argentina 🇦🇷

5. TRIP - TripAdvisor, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - USA 🇺🇸

6. YPF - YPF Sociedad Anonima - Energy - Argentina 🇦🇷

7. PK - Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. - Real Estate - USA 🇺🇸

8. MBC - MasterBrand Cabinets, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - USA 🇺🇸 

9. KEX - Kirby Corporation - Industrials - USA 🇺🇸

ESI - Element Solutions Inc - Basic Materials - USA 🇺🇸

The volatility here is plateaued. Based on possible outcomes, there is a higher likelihood of falling volatility. Which means price should rise slowly and steadily. The setup going into April is very favorable in ESI. Strong and rising signals.

VRRM - Verra Mobility Corporation - Industrials - USA 🇺🇸

Volatility is rising in VRRM. Which is a good setup if you get down days but it makes it hard to buy this stock on anything other than red days. Being up over 8% in the past 15 days shows simply how remarkable it moves. Average signals.

AVTR - Avantor, Inc. - Healthcare - USA 🇺🇸

Recently volatility is starting to fall. Which means the price can move in a more orderly trend. Lower volatility is a friend of bull markets. It’s not required but it is preferred. Improving signals.

GGAL - Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. - Financial - Argentina 🇦🇷

This type of high volatility stock is useful in the long-term. Short-term this can be gut-wrenching for a non-experienced swing trader. I’ll exercise caution due to the volatility. Average signals.

TRIP - TripAdvisor, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - USA 🇺🇸

Very strong recent week at the start of February. 6-8 weeks of consoldiation after a gap move is expected. We are in the sweet spot for continuation to start in TRIP. Strong signals.

YPF - YPF Sociedad Anonima - Energy - Argentina 🇦🇷

A very nice uptrend which has ben recently sideways. This is the type of base you want to see. Continued higher-highs in the range while maintaining bullish sentiment. Strong signals.

PK - Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. - Real Estate - USA 🇺🇸

PK has a favorable setup. The price action shows a rise in volatility recently. Now the volatility is nearly plateaued. Which means downward pressure on volatility will create bullish behavior in the price. All the volatility of PK has done over the past 3 weeks is rise, this was the push necessary to overcome to the bearish selling of the first 2 months of 2024.

MBC - MasterBrand Cabinets, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - USA 🇺🇸 

This stock has multiple positive signals all flashing near perfection. Right now the only risk a resetting of the indicators which tell us MBC is a raging bull. I’ll expect a pullback and buy it. Strong signals.

KEX - Kirby Corporation - Industrials - USA 🇺🇸

Aggressive breakout. The recent move has been so smooth because of a breakdown in volatility. Anytime the volatility breaks down, price will start to move higher quickly. Strong signals.

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