Small Cap Energy, Do You Feel It?

What's real these days? Is the small cap move in November real or is the small cap move in October real?

Author

Bootleg Macro
November 26, 2023

🌟 Welcome back to the New Highs Newsletter. I hope you're savoring your extended Thanksgiving weekend! 🦃🍂

I'm truly thankful for your ongoing support. It's been nearly 24 months since I started writing to you. I remember our first post, titled 'Stormy Seas Are Here, Are You a Saylor?' 🌊⛵️ in which I predicted the market turnover in 2021 and the subsequent bear market of 2022. Allow me to share what I wrote back in January 2022:

We have change in the air, we know the storm is coming and the sky is already grey…all we need to do is be prepared to take advantage.

Since that initial post, I've kept writing, driven by a passion for clarity 🔍📈. Every week, I dive into market analysis 📊, simply because it's fascinating and keeps me in the loop. I truly appreciate your presence on this journey. 🙏 Thank you!

So, what's the current scenario? With just about 5 weeks remaining in the year, we find ourselves in an overbought market 📈💰. November has been nothing short of extraordinary 🎢, with all major indexes soaring by over 7% in the past 20 days! It's been a real rollercoaster ride 🎢📈 – a rally that's made us sit up and take notice.

Interestingly, almost everything is on the rise 📈🚀, except for one conspicuous outlier – oil 🛢️. This divergence certainly piques one's curiosity. 🤔

Do you trust the $VIX to stay below 15 until 2024?

- Dustin

Market Performance

🎉 Holiday trading always brings an air of peculiarity. It's filled with unusual patterns and random occurrences, detached from the conventional market reality. However, longer-term trends are once again showing promise. In hindsight, I can point to just one mistake I made in 2023. 🤦‍♂️

👉 That one mistake was not going long in January 2023, even when the Turbulence indicator clearly signaled it. 💡💼

Rest assured, I won't repeat that blunder if I'm given another chance. The Turbulence indicator switched gears back in December 2022, but I failed to seize its signal and missed out on potential gains. 😬 We might be on the brink of another window of opportunity 🌟🚪, or we could be heading into a full-blown BEAR MARKET 🐻📉, though the onset may be gradual.

In any case, I have no qualms about swiftly acknowledging that things appear different. 😅 It's been a month since October 27th, 2023, and the landscape has evolved. 🌄

Technology 👨‍💻📱 has been wearing the crown 👑 for months in the past and continues to reign, with a promising outlook for the months ahead. On the flip side, the outlook for oil 🛢️ has peaked, and we're seeing clear BEARISH signals 📉, particularly in the case of $USO, where I have my eyes set on the $70 level. It's an intriguing time and place for these market developments during the holiday season. 🎅🎁📈

The established leaders 👑 continue to stand out, remaining consistent in their prominence. As for the rest, well, they mostly appeared quite bleak until last week. 😕 However, there has been a recent resurgence in SMALL CAP ENERGY 🚀, showing signs of life. ⚡💡📊

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 11/9/23🟢

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/13/23🟢

  • Future Price Path: Price to RISE Since 11/8/23🟢

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 11/7/23🟢

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/07/23🟢

  • Future Price Path: RISE Since 11/2/23🟢

  • Trend BULLISH Since 11/07/23🟢

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/07/23🟢

  • Future Price Path: RISE Since 11/2/23🟢

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. I must admit, we are VERY CLOSE to flipping to A BULL MARKET 🐃📈 again! It's worth noting that, just like in 2021, the indicator flipped BULLISH-to-BEARISH-to-BULLISH-to-BEARISH.

Back then, we witnessed a BEAR FLIP, followed by a BULL FLIP 🔄, which lasted for 5 weeks until the real top was in for the 2020-2021 Bull Market (RIP 🌟).

So you can see we’ve gone from incredibly bearish on 10/27 to incredibly BULLISH on 11/26.

So, the question that naturally arises is: is this current flip real or fake? 🤔

This is the turbulence indicator data for 2021-2022.

This is insane

MACRO INDICATOR:

Bear market, bull weather.

  • MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 10/27/22🛑

  • MICRO WEATHER: BULLISH Since 11/7/23🟢

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New Highs $5-$20:

  1. ROVR 🐾🐕 - Internet Communication 🌐 - 🇺🇸 USA

  2. KGC - Kinross Gold Corporation 🥇 - 🇨🇦 Canada

  3. HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited 🥇 - 🇿🇦 South Africa

  4. BGC - BGC Partners, Inc. 💼 - 🇺🇸 USA

  5. NXE - NexGen Energy Ltd. ☢️ - 🇨🇦 Canada

  6. CLBT - Cellebrite Ltd. 💾 - 🇮🇱 Israel

  7. VIV - Telefonica Brasil S.A. 📞 - 🇧🇷 Brazil

  8. AM - Antero Midstream Corporation ⛽ - 🇺🇸 USA

  9. SBS - Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo 🚰 - 🇧🇷 Brazil

  10. NS - NuStar Energy L.P. ⛽ - 🇺🇸 USA

ROVR 🐾🐕 - Internet Communication 🌐 - 🇺🇸 USA

KGC - Kinross Gold Corporation 🥇 - 🇨🇦 Canada

HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited 🥇 - 🇿🇦 South Africa

BGC - BGC Partners, Inc. 💼 - 🇺🇸 USA

NXE - NexGen Energy Ltd. ☢️ - 🇨🇦 Canada

CLBT - Cellebrite Ltd. 💾 - 🇮🇱 Israel

VIV - Telefonica Brasil S.A. 📞 - 🇧🇷 Brazil

AM - Antero Midstream Corporation ⛽ - 🇺🇸 USA

SBS - Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo 🚰 - 🇧🇷 Brazil

NS - NuStar Energy L.P. ⛽ - 🇺🇸 USA

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New Highs $20+:

  1. AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 💼 Insurance - 🇺🇸 USA

  2. CBAY - CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc. 💊 Pharmaceutical - 🇺🇸 USA

  3. GWW - W.W. Grainger, Inc. 🛠️ Industrial Supplies - 🇺🇸 USA

  4. DNN - Denison Mines Corp. ☢️ Uranium Mining - 🇨🇦 Canada

  5. EU - Euronet Worldwide, Inc. 💳 Financial Services - 🇺🇸 USA

  6. APG - APi Group Corporation 🔧 Construction - 🇺🇸 USA

  7. EDU - New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. 📚 Education - 🇨🇳 China

  8. BRO - Brown & Brown, Inc. 🏢 Insurance - 🇺🇸 USA

  9. XPO - XPO Logistics, Inc. 🚚 Transportation - 🇺🇸 USA

  10. AFL - Aflac Incorporated 🦆 Insurance - 🇺🇸 USA

  11. CAH - Cardinal Health, Inc. 💊 Pharmaceutical - 🇺🇸 USA

  12. GRMN - Garmin Ltd. 🛰️ Technology - 🇨🇭 Switzerland

  13. CRWD - CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 🔒 Cybersecurity - 🇺🇸 USA

AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. 💼 Insurance - 🇺🇸 USA

CBAY - CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc. 💊 Pharmaceutical - 🇺🇸 USA

GWW - W.W. Grainger, Inc. 🛠️ Industrial Supplies - 🇺🇸 USA

DNN - Denison Mines Corp. ☢️ Uranium Mining - 🇨🇦 Canada

EU - Euronet Worldwide, Inc. 💳 Financial Services - 🇺🇸 USA

APG - APi Group Corporation 🔧 Construction - 🇺🇸 USA

EDU - New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. 📚 Education - 🇨🇳 China

BRO - Brown & Brown, Inc. 🏢 Insurance - 🇺🇸 USA

XPO Logistics, Inc. 🚚 Transportation - 🇺🇸 USA

AFL - Aflac Incorporated 🦆 Insurance - 🇺🇸 USA

CAH - Cardinal Health, Inc. 💊 Pharmaceutical - 🇺🇸 USA

GRMN - Garmin Ltd. 🛰️ Technology - 🇨🇭 Switzerland

Nice trend in the short-term.

CRWD - CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 🔒 Cybersecurity - 🇺🇸 USA

A fantastic stock in the tech sector with a steady trend.

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