Market Performance Framework

1. Market Overview:

   • I’m blending my original model and my new app in the images below. But as you review my images, please don’t confuse up days with bull markets. But do believe a down 10% week with enduring uncertainty is a signal market sentiment has changed.

2. Key Focus Area:

   • Volatility is everything right now. Volatility can fall and we can see bullish spikes. The trend is still BEARISH. Which means for now, I’ll be buying dips in GLD, TLT and sitting mostly in Money Market Funds.

3. Current Outlook and Indicators:

   • The Turbulence indicator has reset itself. This is an opportunity for it to grind up slowly higher (BULLISH) over the course of a year or 18 months. We might only be going back to the old highs but the path of 1% or 4% a month will add up. Markets have short-memories.

4. Long-Term View:

   • If we get past this tariff talk, the uncertainty and possibly see resolution to some of the largest trading partners. There is a real opportunity for this to be a buying opportunity like no other for markets looking back from 2027 or 2028.

5. Closing Speculation or Questions:

   • The biggest up days happen in bear markets. This is the hardest part of staying solvent during bear markets. Not thinking it’s over too soon. The next part is going to be the hardest. Sitting on my hands until the coast is truly clear. I’ll need to trust my indicators, pay attention to the signals and let the market speak.

Volatility Corner Framework

1. Indicator Update:

   • The Turbulence indicator hasn’t moved this quick since March 2020. This week was the the equivalent of oil going negative in 2020. Everything changed. No matter what people say, markets are telling us.

2. Technical Context:

   • The Turbulence indicator gave a market selling opportunity on 2/14/25 which in hindsight was ample warning. But this indicator has flipped to falling indicator before but in 2024, it chopped. The year change brought volatility change. Sentiment is different now.

3. Risk Assessment:

   • Risk was only higher before the drop last week. Risk going forward is still high because the volatility sentiment will take 4-8 weeks to ring out of indexes. You don’t get in a car-crash and in shake it off the next day. Nope. Markets are at worst in shock and at minimum traumatized. They will behave erratic for the intermediate-future.

4. Historical Parallels:

   • The only previous experience like this is COVID. We did that with TRUMP too. Before this week, I wondered how the stalemate of 2024 volatility would end. Because it had too. You can look back on this chart and see 2020, 2022 and now 2025 — there have been quick drops in markets. We have certainty why volatility spiked this time too.

1. Actionable Insight:

   • I’ll respect volatility. It’s not worth it to try and “buy the bottom” for any trade. It will take a few weeks for the 23 week and 10 week to catch up to this volatility. I’ll wait for signals to inform me.

MACRO INDICATOR:

• MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 3/7/25🛑

• MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 2/21/25🛑

_Disclaimer:

_{THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.}

_{The information contained on this website has been prepared based on publicly available information and proprietary research. The author does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this document. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice.}

_{Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. Except where otherwise indicated, the information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and the author undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional materials.}

_{The author, the author’s affiliates, and clients of the author’s affiliates may currently have long or short positions in the securities of certain of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.}

_{Neither the author nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein. In addition, nothing presented herein shall constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any security.}