Greed Wins, Here is Proof

All you need is 1 indicator in the stock market. This one.

Author

Bootleg Macro
June 18, 2023

Market Performance

  • The USA was attacked. Inflation fell. The fed paused. No one cared, the VIX proved it.

  • Greed took charge this week. 3 day weekends spook markets. So we saw a little fear remerge. An extra day of uncertainty. What didn’t change was the indicators. The VIX closed near the lowest level in 9 months!

  • Sell me your bear case or else I’m buying stocks. What about you?

It’s hard to not believe in a bull market with this evidence.

US Index Review:

Indexes rallied but do we trust it? This is The New High Newsletter and we believe in BULL markets. But this might be too good to be true. The SPY & QQQ are both over 60% BULLISH based on the Bootleg Macro Sentiment Indicator. You’ll see below.

The big companies are carrying the US market. Is that bad? Maybe. But stars are supposed to carry teams. Right?

DIA is now 1.53% above the Bootleg Macro Trade Range

  • Bearish Since 5/5/23

  • Go Long Since 6/5/22

  • Price to Rise Since 6/5/22

DIA Bullish Sentiment is coming off the lows in May/June

DIA at the top of it’s range.

QQQ continues to run above it’s 15 day SMA.

  • QQQ Bullish Trend Since 5/16/23

  • GO Long Signal Since 5/1/23

  • Price to Fall Since 6/8/23

QQQ Bullish Sentiment is at 68% (which is high)

SPY is breaking out higher this week but could see a pullback.

  • Bullish Trend Since 5/31/23

  • Go Long Since 5/18/23

  • Price to Fall Since 6/16/23*

SPY Bullish % 67% (Very High)

SPY is at the top of it’s range.

New Highs $5-$20:

  1. NCLH - Travel Services (SPY 500)

  2. HPE - Communication Equipment

  3. CCL - Travel Services

  4. PACB - Medical Devices

  5. TAST - Restaurants

  6. CX - Building Materials

  7. GENI - Communication Services

  8. EVLV - Security & Protection Services

  9. WEAV - Software Applications

  10. IMGN - Biotechnology

This week, we have pullbacks in strong stocks. I consider it an opportunity. Bears think it’s a signal. One of us is right. I hope it’s me.

Held in the SPY 500 which is good to see. Travel isn’t up in a recession.

I love brand name companies hitting highs. Instant recognition.

Whoa. This is the 2nd cruise company on the list of breakouts!

A down week with 10%+ to the downside in the range. But it’s at the action line for me. Hmmm.

A 15 days rolling negative return is one for me to avoid but it’s worth watching. History tells me to trust the trend.

15% in 3 weeks. That’s a little much but it can go higher in my opinion.

So interesting it had a down week. I’ll watch this one.

A down week but it’s riding above it’s 15 day SMA. Still strong.

Amazing move for 1 month. I’d love a shakeout.

Biotech runs when it’s a bull market. You decide.

New Highs $20+:

  1. COCO - Non-Alcoholic Drinks

  2. CNM - Industrial Design

  3. UBER - Software Application

  4. APG - Engineering & Construction

  5. VSH - Semiconductors

  6. SONY - Consumer Electronics

  7. ITB - Home Construction

  8. ENS - Electrical Equipment & Parts

  9. WMT - Discount Stores

  10. PTC - Software

  11. ABC - Medical Distribution

What a run. Non-Alcoholic drinks are becoming all the rage.

I love finding random companies breaking out. This is a winner but it isn’t known yet.

Does a taxi service break out in a recession? Are consumers pulling back? Maybe I’m wrong but this chart is very strong.

Nice run. Look for a pullback, if possible.

Semis are hot and this is getting the bid.

Japan’s market is on fire right now. You can’t go wrong buying strong stocks in strong markets.

Housing ETF breaking out! I mean…I trust price action not news.

This was an extreme move very quickly.

This is the stock which makes me believe in a recession. Walmart is hot right now.

A nice software company breaking out. Small but steady.

A nice move. It’s hard to dispute this type of action. Long and strong.

Next Week:

  • Business Events (Earnings, Conferences, etc)

    • Market Closed For Juneteenth - Monday

    • FDX Earnings - June 20th

Fedex is a great indicator of overall economy strength. I’ll be curious to see their earning and guidance.

  • WGO - Earnings June 21st

    There is an old theory Winnebago’s stock reflects the economy. Well we find out this week. It' looks very BULLISH so far.

    • KBH - Earnings June 21st

Home builder earnings are interesting to all market participants. We all believe rates are hurting housing. Maybe.

  • Dexcom - Medical Device

    A sub $100 Billion Software company doing a breakout. That’s a good sign. Earnings next week.

  • Central Banks (Speeches, Decisions, Meetings)

    • Jerome Powell Testify to House Panel - June 20th

    • Jerome Powell Testifies to Senate Panel - June 22nd

Thank you, please share

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