Good Buy Charlie

Charlie Munger’s tribute this week from Warren Buffett shows the power of compounding in life. Time together, spent well and in pursuit of common goals. Be those goals financial, emotional, cultural or otherwise they give dividends in their forms. Make sure and collect then reflect. Warren wrote beautifully and left us all one more treasured gem from his wisdom.

Author

Bootleg Macro
February 25, 2024

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Charlie Munger’s tribute this week from Warren Buffett shows the power of compounding in life. Time together, spent well and in pursuit of common goals. Be those goals financial, emotional, cultural or otherwise they give dividends in their forms. Make sure and collect then reflect. Warren wrote beautifully and left us all one more treasured gem from his wisdom.

NVDA reminded us all of the paradigm shift. Another S-curve kicking off for markets to absorb. We’ve started on a global path of synchronized growth (prepare for the return of this phrase).

If you’re looking at the world things are picking up. We see the core of the European economy showing “green chutes” (by the way, I hate to hear this term again, it’s like 2013 all over again).

Asia’s markets are starting to show signs of potentially bottoming. India is still fantastic. It’s all coming together.

There is much to see and much to do, let us get started for you.

- Dustin

Market Performance

All markets are up for the week. We see strength continuing. What we wonder is about inflation. What will oil do for the rest of the quarter? How does March 2024 look with respect to oil and the dollar?

They are going up while the market is going up currently, can this continue? Is this how prices for generations before went from 50 cents for a gallon of gas to $3?

Other than the questions around potential inflation, the market has no issues. It’s growth, earnings and fundamental talk on TV. There’s no bubble to be seen by me right now.

What I expect is 5500 SPY (at some point), 41,000 Dow and 17,000 Nasdaq. It’s all possible this year under these conditions. It should be slow, it should be a grind and it should surprise.

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. The ratio here looks terrible. Honestly, I’m watching but if you see the sharp bottom recently, it was Halloween 2023.

I famously (to myself mostly) went full bear. For real, you can read it here: It’s Officially a Bear Market - So I am patient to let the price action tell me the truth. Indicators can indicate but prices are what change the account. For now, SPY, Nasdaq and Dow Jones do not care about this ratio.

If anything we have a true market for a stock picker. We are seeing true winners get money and losers getting left. Check out NVDA vs AAPL - Trust me, I’ve been bearish APPLE since August of 2023.

If you like it and the market likes it, who cares if volatility is rising? The prices should jump higher faster in those conditions.

The top of the range is now above $16 which is spicy. I’m not expecting VIX to fall much below $13

MACRO INDICATOR:

Long-term, we are in a BULL MARKET. Daily, we are in a BEAR MARKET

  • MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 12/2/22🟢

  • MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 7/27/23🛑

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New Highs $5-$20:

  1. GOTU - Gaotu Techedu Inc ADR - Consumer Defensive - Education & Training Services - 🇨🇳

  2. WT - WisdomTree, Inc. - Financial - Asset Management - 🇺🇸

  3. CCCC - C4 Therapeutics Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

  4. ASX - ASE Technology Holding Co.Ltd ADR - Technology - Semiconductors - 🇹🇼

  5. OCUL - Ocular Therapeutix Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

  6. MUFG - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. ADR - Financial - Banks - Diversified - 🇯🇵

  7. BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria. ADR - Financial - Banks - Diversified - 🇪🇸

  8. GOGL - Golden Ocean Group Limited - Industrials - Marine Shipping - 🇧🇲

  9. HST - Host Hotels & Resorts Inc - Real Estate - REIT - Hotel & Motel - 🇺🇸

  10. RLJ - RLJ Lodging Trust - Real Estate - REIT - Hotel & Motel - 🇺🇸

GOTU - Gaotu Techedu Inc ADR - Consumer Defensive - Education & Training Services - 🇨🇳

WT - WisdomTree, Inc. - Financial - Asset Management - 🇺🇸

CCCC - C4 Therapeutics Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

ASX - ASE Technology Holding Co.Ltd ADR - Technology - Semiconductors - 🇹🇼

OCUL - Ocular Therapeutix Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

MUFG - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. ADR - Financial - Banks - Diversified - 🇯🇵

BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria. ADR - Financial - Banks - Diversified - 🇪🇸

GOGL - Golden Ocean Group Limited - Industrials - Marine Shipping - 🇧🇲

HST - Host Hotels & Resorts Inc - Real Estate - REIT - Hotel & Motel - 🇺🇸

RLJ - RLJ Lodging Trust - Real Estate - REIT - Hotel & Motel - 🇺🇸

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New Highs $20+:

1. AORT - Artivion Inc - Healthcare - Medical Devices - 🇺🇸

2. SCVL - Shoe Carnival, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Retail - 🇺🇸

3. HIBB - Hibbett Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Retail - 🇺🇸

4. CDRE* - Cadre Holdings Inc - Industrials - Aerospace & Defense - 🇺🇸

5. EPAC - Enerpac Tool Group Corp - Industrials - Specialty Industrial Machinery - 🇺🇸

6. EAT - Brinker International, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants - 🇺🇸

7. KROS - Keros Therapeutics Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

8. ALPN - Alpine Immune Sciences Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

9. PATK - Patrick Industries, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances - 🇺🇸

10. PLAY - Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc - Communication Services - Entertainment - 🇺🇸

AORT - Artivion Inc - Healthcare - Medical Devices - 🇺🇸

SCVL - Shoe Carnival, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Retail - 🇺🇸

HIBB - Hibbett Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Retail - 🇺🇸

CDRE* - Cadre Holdings Inc - Industrials - Aerospace & Defense - 🇺🇸

EPAC - Enerpac Tool Group Corp - Industrials - Specialty Industrial Machinery - 🇺🇸

EAT - Brinker International, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants - 🇺🇸

KROS - Keros Therapeutics Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

ALPN - Alpine Immune Sciences Inc - Healthcare - Biotechnology - 🇺🇸

PATK - Patrick Industries, Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances - 🇺🇸

PLAY - Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc - Communication Services - Entertainment - 🇺🇸

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