Don't Trust The High Priests of Corporations or CryptoCurrency

In expansions CEOs become narrative spreaders. They will lie to the sky and back again if you'll listen. Don't buy a T-Shirt or believe the narratives...trust price. Not the crypto high-priests who want their flock to return for the 2nd time this decade.

Author

Bootleg Macro
March 17, 2024

The market is so back, we have the Palantir CEO accusing short-sellers of being on cocaine. This is the start of a messy and well-loved expansion. Check elon’s 2017 rants - His comments were in the midst of corporate tax cuts and an 18 month expansion which ended due to market meddling by the fed in late 2018.

Indexes here in 2024 all shared in a pull-back (see below). The type of pull-back hardly noticed but warranting a buying of the red. We used to call it Buy The Dip, BTD or better yet during Covid, Buy the F*cking Dip, BTFD. Either way, this was a week to be getting in that dip.

March is traditionally the worst month for stocks in Q1. Especially during a presidential cycle. Now that frequentist statistic stuff isn’t super useful, it can be a guide. Similar to the traders almanac. It’s good stuff to know but not enough to place a bet.

Now we’ve set the stage, the indexes all had a negative week. March has 2 weeks left and CEO’s are jockeying for attention to their stocks. It’s almost time for the breadth to start dominating CNBC and Bloomberg. I’ll watch for April and May to be banner months

Below we have a wide swath of tickers hitting new highs. The element to notice this week is the international breadth of new highs we recognize.

The dollar has appeared very BEARISH since 2024 started. As a tale wind to both domestic and international equities, we must take note of new high completion changes. There are 15 of the 20 stocks from the USA. 25% international is a nice mix.

It’s time to watch commodities as inflation floats a higher level and growth starts to outpace. This is cocktail of volatile growth.

- Dustin

Market Performance

Overall, we’ve seen a great quarter of market moves for US indexes. Can anyone complain? No…unless you’re running for President of the USA. Then you have to pretend the up-and-to-the-right motion of markets is “the worst thing ever”. It’s not.

Bitcoin has taken investor’s attention, hearts and minds. I expect to see Warren Buffett with a Bitcoin hat cropped on in some image by the end of 2024. All we need now is a bloodbath reversal down to $50k which takes off 30% and we get a “markets in turmoil” banner without indexes experiencing any action.

I’m all for expansion but we are about to see cultist behavior pumped into every home through mass market media. Prepare to resist the temptation to praise the high priests of cryptocurrency for a 2nd time in this decade. Because they will sell you everything and more to make you a believer.

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. This is sideways and upward.

Below…it’s important to see the Turbulence Indicator is giving us a green light. Things are going to get better, as shocking as it may seem considering the action of March 2024.

The blue line picking up and going north is our tail wind. It’s time to act accordingly. I’ll be aggressively bullish from here until Memorial day 2024. That’s 8-10 weeks.

We are simply trying to avoid pain. This indicator isn’t about timing, it’s about understanding. If it’s snowing or raining, it doesn’t stop me from going out to get groceries. It’s about being aware and prepared for the situation.

We have better times ahead but there will be large challenges to navigate. And we should expect huge narratives to de-rail the rally temporarily. But until the narrative arises, let us allow for momentum, trend and price action to guide us.

MACRO INDICATOR:

  • MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 12/2/22🛑

  • MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 3/1/23🛑

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New Highs $5-$20:

  1. MRC - MRC Global Inc - Energy - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services - 🇺🇸

  2. ARLO - Arlo Technologies Inc - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸

  3. HBI - Hanesbrands Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Manufacturing - 🇺🇸

  4. GEO - Geo Group, Inc. - Industrials - Security & Protection Services - 🇺🇸

  5. BVN - Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A. ADR - Basic Materials - Other Precious Metals & Mining - 🇵🇪

  6. PR - Permian Resources Corp - Energy - Oil & Gas E&P - 🇺🇸

  7. SUZ - Suzano S.A. ADR - Basic Materials - Paper & Paper Products - 🇧🇷

  8. BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria. ADR - Financial - Banks - Diversified - 🇪🇸

  9. STLA - Stellantis N.V - Consumer Cyclical - Auto Manufacturers - 🇳🇱

  10. CRBG - Corebridge Financial Inc. - Financial - Asset Management - 🇺🇸

MRC - MRC Global Inc - Energy - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services - 🇺🇸

ARLO - Arlo Technologies Inc - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸

HBI - Hanesbrands Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Manufacturing - 🇺🇸

GEO - Geo Group, Inc. - Industrials - Security & Protection Services - 🇺🇸

BVN - Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A. ADR - Basic Materials - Other Precious Metals & Mining - 🇵🇪

PR - Permian Resources Corp - Energy - Oil & Gas E&P - 🇺🇸

SUZ - Suzano S.A. ADR - Basic Materials - Paper & Paper Products - 🇧🇷

BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria. ADR - Financial - Banks - Diversified - 🇪🇸

STLA - Stellantis N.V - Consumer Cyclical - Auto Manufacturers - 🇳🇱

CRBG - Corebridge Financial Inc. - Financial - Asset Management - 🇺🇸

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New Highs $20+:

  1. CAL - Caleres Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Retail - 🇺🇸

  2. COLL - Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc - Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic - 🇺🇸

  3. GCT - GigaCloud Technology Inc - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸

  4. UNM - Unum Group - Financial - Insurance - Life - 🇺🇸

  5. AXS - Axis Capital Holdings Ltd - Financial - Insurance - Specialty - 🇧🇲

  6. GMS - GMS Inc - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸

  7. DASH - DoorDash Inc - Communication Services - Internet Content & Information - 🇺🇸

  8. TSCO - Tractor Supply Co. - Consumer Cyclical - Specialty Retail - 🇺🇸

  9. CAT - Caterpillar Inc. - Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery - 🇺🇸

  10. CSL - Carlisle Companies Inc. - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸

CAL - Caleres Inc - Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Retail - 🇺🇸

COLL - Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc - Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic - 🇺🇸

GCT - GigaCloud Technology Inc - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸

UNM - Unum Group - Financial - Insurance - Life - 🇺🇸

AXS - Axis Capital Holdings Ltd - Financial - Insurance - Specialty -

GMS - GMS Inc - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸

DASH - DoorDash Inc - Communication Services - Internet Content & Information - 🇺🇸

TSCO - Tractor Supply Co. - Consumer Cyclical - Specialty Retail - 🇺🇸

CAT - Caterpillar Inc. - Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery - 🇺🇸

CSL - Carlisle Companies Inc. - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸

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