Climbing Out of the Pit - Bullishness Returns... For Now

The Nasdaq is leading the way out of the pit — but let’s not pretend the crater wasn’t real. SPY and Dow still look lost, and sector strength is narrow. Only $XLF and $XLU show sustained trend resilience. Meanwhile, international breakouts are quietly stacking up while U.S. breadth lags. It’s not a new cycle... yet. But if we’re climbing, it’s because sentiment hit bedrock and bounced. Keep your eyes on metals, currencies, and turbulence into June — that’s where the path gets steep again.

Market Overview: Nasdaq bullish. SPY & Dow Jones, Bearish. That’s it. We have limited sectors showing trending bullishness. Only $XLF ( ▲ 0.65% )  $XLU ( ▲ 0.48% ) are showing a 5 month rolling positive return. The market is lost. It’s undecided. Only time will tell us is this a counter-trend move or a new trend?

New Highs $5-$20: The broadest list of low-priced stocks breakout I’ve seen in a while. $ICL ( ▲ 0.74% ) has my attention. But add in $KT ( ▲ 1.62% )  $SPNT ( ▼ 2.54% )  $TAK ( 0.0% ) and others and you can see we’re all over the world. Only 2 USA stocks! It tells you again — international has setups.

New Highs $20+: Here we see a heavy USA dominated list. $NFLX ( ▲ 2.17% ) again! $DUOL ( ▲ 1.65% ) has people learning languages. And $GRND ( ▲ 3.31% ) continues it’s march toward dating dominance. Large market cap trends are US based. But many international names on this list too like $SAP ( ▲ 1.16% ) .

Turbulence Indicator: We’re climbing out of the liberation day pit. Bullishness has returned, even if for a short-while. Stay vigilant.

Looking Ahead: I can see BULLISHNESS from here until middle of June. Then we hit some averages on the turbulence indicator which make me nervous. We can wait and see, patience is the key. I show the daily turbulence indicator below for the first time in a while.

Market Performance Framework

  1. Market Overview:

    • Nasdaq continued it’s BULLISH trend. SPY and DOW JONES are still BEARISH. But BULLISHNESS is seeping back into US markets.

  2. Key Focus Area:

    • Watch tech, it’s showing a bit of a bid. I need to be very selective.

  3. Current Outlook and Indicators:

    • Short-term volatility indicators are showing BULLISHNESS returning. Negative sentiment peaked when Trump paused tariffs.

  4. Long-Term View:

    • We have hope the outcome of this market is higher and All-Time-Highs. For now, it’s generally Risk-On. But Risk-Off is lurking.

Up 8% in 3 weeks. Yet still not bullish…hmm.

Up only 4.35% in 3 weeks. Very muted.

Hitting the top of the range. The range is still narrowing. Last time was a setup for drop.

The strongest of all indexes. Up 15% in 3 weeks.

Volatility Corner Framework

  1. Indicator Update:

    • Short-term or medium-term, we have a serious bottom in market turbulence. We’ve dropped 20% of our BULLISH VIBES from 3/1 through 5/1. Are we in the eye of the storm or the start of new weather?

  2. Technical Context:

    • Generally, I believe this is going to be a very BULLISH period until the daily turbulence indicator (which I rarely reference) hits about 5.0. Which happens to be the 69 D SMA (this week) - Then I suspect we get a big jump in volatility in the middle of the summer. (Maybe: End of June/July 4th)

Daily Version

  1. Risk Assessment:

    • I’m staying long BULLISH trends. Hope to buy on dips.

Weekly Version

MACRO INDICATOR:

  • MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 3/7/25🛑 (Watch for a flip)

  • MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 2/21/25🛑

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New Highs $5-$20:

  1. ICL – ICL Group Ltd – Basic Materials – 🇮🇱 Israel

  2. GTX – Garrett Motion Inc – Consumer Cyclical – 🇨🇭 Switzerland

  3. ADPT – Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp – Healthcare – 🇺🇸 United States

  4. HCSG – Healthcare Services Group, Inc – Healthcare – 🇺🇸 United States

  5. TAK – Takeda Pharmaceutical Co ADR – Healthcare – 🇯🇵 Japan

  6. BCS – Barclays plc ADR – Financial – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

  7. SPNT – SiriusPoint Ltd – Financial – 🇧🇲 Bermuda

  8. KT – KT Corporation ADR – Communication Services – 🇰🇷 South Korea

ICL – ICL Group Ltd – Basic Materials – 🇮🇱 Israel

GTX – Garrett Motion Inc – Consumer Cyclical – 🇨🇭 Switzerland

ADPT – Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp – Healthcare – 🇺🇸 United States

HCSG – Healthcare Services Group, Inc – Healthcare – 🇺🇸 United States

TAK – Takeda Pharmaceutical Co ADR – Healthcare – 🇯🇵 Japan

BCS – Barclays plc ADR – Financial – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

SPNT – SiriusPoint Ltd – Financial – 🇧🇲 Bermuda

KT – KT Corporation ADR – Communication Services – 🇰🇷 South Korea

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New Highs $20+:

  1. BRK-B – Berkshire Hathaway Inc – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

  2. NFLX – Netflix Inc – Communication Services – 🇺🇸 United States

  3. SAP – SAP SE ADR – Technology – 🇩🇪 Germany

  4. SPOT – Spotify Technology S.A – Communication Services – 🇱🇺 Luxembourg

  5. DUOL – Duolingo Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 United States

  6. VEA – Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

  7. EUAD – iShares ESG Aware Developed Markets ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

  8. EWS – iShares MSCI Singapore ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

  9. GRND – Grindr Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 United States

BRK-B – Berkshire Hathaway Inc – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

NFLX – Netflix Inc – Communication Services – 🇺🇸 United States

SAP – SAP SE ADR – Technology – 🇩🇪 Germany

SPOT – Spotify Technology S.A – Communication Services – 🇱🇺 Luxembourg

DUOL – Duolingo Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 United States

VEA – Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

EUAD – iShares ESG Aware Developed Markets ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

EWS – iShares MSCI Singapore ETF – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

GRND – Grindr Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 United States

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