Market Performance Framework

📊 Market Overview

Big volume, no direction—like a Mormon’s first time. That was $SPY ( ▲ 0.73% ) on Friday: over 4.8 billion shares traded, and it closed down just 0.01%. A whole lot of nothing, but that kind of compression usually sets up expansion.

🎯 Key Focus Area

Large-cap tech is my #1 focus for the summer. Don’t overthink it—which index has the strongest 3-month rolling return? That’s the one I’m tracking. You do you, but I’ll ride with $QQQ ( ▲ 1.07% ) until it breaks down.

📈 Current Outlook & Indicators

Volatility is trending the right way—lower—on both the weekly and daily charts. Most major indexes are still BULLISH. That little flip to BEARISH on Friday? I think it’s noise. Expect it gone by Tuesday

🕰️ Long-Term View

Spring was ugly, which makes year-over-year growth in 2026 almost inevitable. Buy the dips now—before next year’s growth narrative starts getting priced in. The dip isn’t just my friend—it’s family.

🤔 Closing Speculation

If tariffs make a comeback, do we see a pullback? Maybe. But the market didn’t flinch much after the court ruling declared them illegal. I’d bet any weakness is brief and the trend remains BULLISH.

What’s your take?

Volatility Corner Framework

📊 Indicator Update

We’re nearing a break above the 23-week volatility average—a big signal on the long-term trend. The daily chart is looking bullish too. Setup is solid, even if a bit of volatility creeps back into the market short-term.

🧠 Technical Context

People seem to be forgetting how strong tech earnings were. Political headlines might shake sentiment, but fundamentals drive long-term trends. Growth is still on the table—even with government interference trying to slow the game.

⚖️ Risk Assessment

Long-term, I’m sticking to what’s working: names and sectors with strong 3-month rolling returns. The indexes may chop, but sectors keep offering clean setups.

Here’s a quick visual from the Trade Range App sector page to illustrate exactly that 👇

• Do you notice how strong $XLC is? That’s a very important ticker because it’s heavy into $META ( ▲ 0.32% )  $AMZN ( ▲ 1.6% ) and $GOOG ( ▼ 0.25% )  $NFLX ( ▲ 2.66% )

  

🕰️ Historical Parallels

Down days and red weeks can still happen in an up year. That’s normal. And honestly, that’s exactly how 2025 feels so far—a bullish year with a few head fakes.

✅ Actionable Insight

I’m watching for a violent flip the other way—but until then, the market looks ready to climb the wall of worry. Stay focused, not shaken.

MACRO INDICATOR:

• MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 3/7/25🛑 (Watch for a flip)

• MICRO WEATHER: BULLISH Since 5/12/25 🟢

New Highs $5-$20:

1. $HG ( ▼ 1.36% ) – Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd – Financial – 🇧🇲 Bermuda

2. $CLBR ( ▲ 1.65% ) – Colombier Acquisition Corp. II – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

3. LFMD – LifeMD Inc – Healthcare – 🇺🇸 United States

4. HLN – Haleon plc ADR – Healthcare – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

5. OST – Ostin Technology Group Co Ltd – Technology – 🇨🇳 China

6. TEF – Telefonica S.A ADR – Communication Services – 🇪🇸 Spain

HG – Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd – Financial – 🇧🇲 Bermuda

CLBR – Colombier Acquisition Corp. II – Financial – 🇺🇸 United States

LFMD – LifeMD Inc – Healthcare – 🇺🇸 United States

HLN – Haleon plc ADR – Healthcare – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

OST – Ostin Technology Group Co Ltd – Technology – 🇨🇳 China

TEF – Telefonica S.A ADR – Communication Services – 🇪🇸 Spain

New Highs $20+:

1. KAR – KAR Auction Services Inc – Industrials – 🇺🇸 United States

2. HLN – Haleon plc ADR – Healthcare – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

3. OR – OR Royalties Inc – Basic Materials – 🇨🇦 Canada

4. BTM – Bitcoin Depot Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 United States

5. PM – Philip Morris International Inc – Consumer Defensive – 🇺🇸 United States

6. GE – GE Aerospace – Industrials – 🇺🇸 United States

7. HDB – HDFC Bank Ltd. ADR – Financial – 🇮🇳 India

8. BUD – Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV ADR – Consumer Defensive – 🇧🇪 Belgium

9. TRI – Thomson-Reuters Corp – Industrials – 🇨🇦 Canada

10. WM – Waste Management, Inc – Industrials – 🇺🇸 United States

11. CVNA – Carvana Co – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 United States

12. CHWY – Chewy Inc – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 United States

13. ULTA – Ulta Beauty Inc – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 United States

14. EBAY – eBay Inc – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 United States

KAR – KAR Auction Services Inc – Industrials – 🇺🇸 United States

HLN – Haleon plc ADR – Healthcare – 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

BTM – Bitcoin Depot Inc – Technology – 🇺🇸 United States

PM – Philip Morris International Inc – Consumer Defensive – 🇺🇸 United States

GE – GE Aerospace – Industrials – 🇺🇸 United States

HDB – HDFC Bank Ltd. ADR – Financial – 🇮🇳 India

BUD – Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV ADR – Consumer Defensive – 🇧🇪 Belgium

TRI – Thomson-Reuters Corp – Industrials – 🇨🇦 Canada

WM – Waste Management, Inc – Industrials – 🇺🇸 United States

CVNA – Carvana Co – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 United States

CHWY – Chewy Inc – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 United States

ULTA – Ulta Beauty Inc – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 United States

EBAY – eBay Inc – Consumer Cyclical – 🇺🇸 United States

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