Proof Bitcoin's 2023 Breakout is Real From a Non-Believer

Bitcoin's breakout with proof, High-beta’s return to form, Japan’s bull market and 26+ stocks which hit new highs this week.

Author

Bootleg Macro
June 25, 2023

What a week:

This week we review Bitcoin’s breakout, High-beta’s return to form, Japan’s 10-year bull market and 26+ stocks which hit new highs this week.

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Market Performance

Bitcoin broke above $30,000.

  • It’s going for it’s 52 week high!

    • New Bitcoin ETFS are coming.

    • Demand is rising in Bitcoin and in Ethereum.

    • Do you believe in the signal? I do here, here is why":

      1. We believe in breakouts.

      2. It’s been 18 months since the peak.

      3. Bitcoin went on a rolling 5 month positive return on January. (Highlighted below)

      4. Bitcoin 1-year rolling went positive last week. (Highlighted in the red bar at the bottom)

From the High in November 2021 until Jun 2023 (18 months)

High-Beta Strikes Back!

  • High-Beta’s return to form. In a beta-trending market, everyone feels smarter. The geniuses on Fintwit were abound in 2020-2021…what a coincidence.

  • The chart below goes back to Q2, 2020 is a relative strength chart comparing $SPHB (high-beta) / $SPLV (low-beta). Clearly you can see high-beta peaked in mid-2021. During 2022, it went down to sideways. 2022, the year of market tuition payments for traders.

  • We don’t have confirmation yet but this is something to watch as we enter the back half of 2023.

High Beta vs Low Beta (relative strength)

Japan’s Bull Market is 10 years old!

Japan hit a new 52 week high in 2013 and hasn’t had 2 back-to-back down years since.

  • Warren Buffet doesn’t look at charts but he does take his time to let opportunities develop. Well…Japan has been developing since 2013 and he noticed.

  • There was a pullback this week in Japanese stocks. And it’s nice.

  • I’ve been paying attention to a couple companies I know:

    1. Sony

    2. Honda

SONY had it’s 1-month rolling return flip negative on 6/16/23. A good signal of a pullback.

Sony is now officially at the bottom of it’s range. A possible great entry.

Honda hasn’t gone as negative yet but is showing weakness.

Honda is on a pullback but it’s not as extreme, yet.

US Index Review:

  • Bullish Since 6/23/23*

  • Go Long Since 6/5/22

  • Price to Rise Since 6/5/22

Sentiment to no surprise has turned down but t’s still not overbought.

DIA is in the middle of it’s range. Nice look for an opportunity.

QQQ continues to lead the pack.

  • QQQ Bullish Trend Since 5/16/23

  • GO Long Signal Since 5/1/23

  • Price to Fall Since 6/8/23

QQQ Sentiment is from a high level.

An interesting level for the SPY. It could go back to $420 and launch even higher.

  • Bullish Trend Since 5/31/23

  • Go Long Since 5/18/23

  • Price to Fall Since 6/16/23

Before we begin, keep this question in mind: What stock on the new highs list below has the highest correlation to Bitcoin? If high-beta is hot and bitcoin is hot, it makes sense to find high-beta and high-bitcoin correlation stocks. Just a thought.

New Highs $5-$20:

  1. IMGN - Biotech (USA

  2. CLS - Electronic Components (Canada)

  3. AZUL - Airlines (Brazil)

  4. ARCO - Restaurants (Uruguay)

  5. NU - Financial (Brazil)

  6. NR - Oil & Gas Equipment Services (USA)

  7. SBS - Utilities Regulated Water (Brazil)

  8. WEAV - Technology (USA)

  9. NTCO - Household & Personal Products (Brazil)

.

New Highs $20+:

  1. VIST - Oil & Gas E&P (Mexico)

  2. TMCD - Medical Device (USA)

  3. DFH - Residential Construction (USA)

  4. DV - Software (USA)

  5. COHU - Semiconductor (USA)

  6. HWM - Aerospace & Defense (USA)

  7. KBH - Home Builder (USA)

  8. SHAK - Restaurant (USA)

  9. MKC - Packaged Food (USA)

  10. EXAS - Diagnostics & Research (USA)

  11. MTH - Residential Construction (USA)

  12. DBX - Software - Infrastructure

  13. JBL - Electronic Components

  14. ANF - Apparel Retail

  15. AMWD - Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances

  16. RDNT - Diagnostic & Research

Seeing Dropbox on this list is interesting, tech breath is broadening out. And it has a 30% correlation to bitcoin. Weird but true.

Next Week:

  • Business Events (Earnings, Conferences, etc)

    • Monday, June 26th

      • CCL - Carnival Corporation - (Earnings)

      • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

    • Tuesday, June 27th

      • WBA - Walgreens Boots Alliance - (Earnings)

      • S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (Apr)

      • New Home Sales (May)

    • Wednesday, June 28th

      • MU - Micron Technology - (Earnings)

      • GIS - General Mills - (Earnings)

      • Retail Inventories (May)

      • Wholesale Inventories (May)

      • Goods Trade Balance (May)

      • Bank Stress Test results to be published

    • Thursday, June 29th

      • NKE - Nike - (Earnings)

      • PAYX - Paychex Inc. - (Earnings)

      • MKC - McCormick & Company - (Earnings)

      • U.S. GDP Growth Rate - Final Reading (Q1 2023)

      • Pending Home Sales (May)

    • Friday, June 30th

      • STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc - (Earnings)

      • Personal Income and Spending (May)

      • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (May)

      • Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (May)

      • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Final (Jun)

      • Euro Area Inflation Rate - Flash Estimate (Jun)

      • Euro Area Unemployment Rate (May)

  • Central Banks (Speeches, Decisions, Meetings)

    • Jerome Powell Policy Panel Discussion - (Watch Here)

      • At the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2023, Sintra, Portugal

    • Jerome Powell Discussion with Bank of Span Governor Pablo Hernandez de Coz - (Watch Here)

Thank you, we’d love your feedback. Any comments, ideas are appreciated. We try to make this useful and engaging for you.

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