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- Bearishness in August Ravaged The Stock Market, Is It Over?
Bearishness in August Ravaged The Stock Market, Is It Over?
The Bootleg Macro Stock Market MACRO INDICATOR In This Edition Gave A Crystal Clear Answer. Read Here.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/be50a705-de5a-4d74-8bca-aa2632e77e97/Dan_picture_of_angery_black_bear_red_paint_specks_on_face_photo_0b7854ee-2e7c-4dc8-abb9-9da149ae4b6f.png?t=1694968323)
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๐ Welcome back. September 17th! ๐ Can you believe it? ๐ณ
Homecoming season ๐ is kicking off across the USA. Iโm ready for fall, ๐ I feel like a pumpkin ๐ spice stock market ripper is upon us. What about you?
We have a lot of Uranium โข๏ธ, Coking Coal and Oil/Gas ๐ข๏ธ names in the BREAKOUTS BELOW. What does it mean?
Industrials ๐ญ are having a resurgence at all price points. Increased inflation brings VOLATILITY.
Weโve seen MASSIVE developments in the TURBULENCE indicator this week. The VOLATILITY CORNER has more but you may for this week at least appreciate the MICRO WEATHER โ๏ธ flip.
Youโre probably thinking, โSay lessโ. I will.
Lets get into it.
p.s.. if you read nothing else, Toyota Motors is at 52 week highs! (๐ฏ๐ต ๐!)
Market Performance
Friday was bad. Itโs wasnโt BULLISH ๐. But we got an important indicator flip this week. Below on the VOLATILITY CORNER, youโll see the MACRO INDICATOR. We saw BULL MARKET ๐ action in the MICRO WEATHER โ๏ธ, which is positive.
We can highlight POSITIVE ROLLING RETURNS beyond 1 Month for ALL INDEXES. ๐
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ed62c6d3-f382-428a-86d6-1d3b68b53932/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.04.17_AM.png)
Indexes are reflecting the BULLS ๐ coming back into the market.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ff2623d4-5994-464c-a164-cc8e6d7c7c45/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.09.31_AM.png)
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More upside potential than downside for the SPY500
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ddd69831-9e48-4ecb-ac48-5fe1935b0fe1/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.16.18_AM.png)
The 15 Day Moving Average is Rising for The DOWโฆand itโs BULLISH. Good Signs.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/6766012c-3b8e-4148-a977-2cda13ad3873/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.16.57_AM.png)
Nasdaq continues to show the most strength. We respect the 13.5k line and expect a bounce from here.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/7125aca2-d6d8-4a61-8aeb-535edf73dc1c/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.19.15_AM.png)
If this was a stock, would you buy it? Yeah, the 10-year yield continues to break out higher.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/618fa7f1-4eca-43cd-a197-92d847c230e2/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.19.31_AM.png)
The 5-year yield continues to break out higher too.
Volatility Corner:
VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. You see the up and downโฆwe had a big move this week BOUNCING BACK BELOW the 10 Week, which isnโt a big deal now but we hope it can prove to break higher.
The market has been choppy but not down. All indexes are positive over their 15 Day and longer for their rolling returns. Thatโs a good signal considering how we saw the negative rolling returns in August 2023.
We expect BULLISH ๐ action in the SHORT-TERM. This market will allow for CHOP ๐ช and RANGES.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/629b8015-03e3-44f9-95c8-b384f5aefe76/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.25.44_AM.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/1172a75a-b8ec-4b9a-92d6-d6de9b1a4a42/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.25.09_AM.png)
VIX 15 day SMA is down and price is underneath. We could see a slow bleed ๐ฉธ out of VOL down to 12.50 or a snap explosion.
MACRO INDICATOR:
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a57e6bea-06ab-4104-a931-75c2ffefccdc/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.28.34_AM.png)
MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 12/2/22๐ข ๐
MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 9/11/23๐ข***(Never Forget ๐บ๐ธ) ๐
US Index ETF Review:
SPY ๐
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c70e3942-a575-4727-b48e-55776174e01c/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.29.26_AM.png)
This is BULLISH but itโs not the strongest move.
Trend: BULLISH Since 8/31/23๐ข
Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 9/1/23๐ข
Future Price Path: Price to RISE Since 9/1/23๐ข
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/09d58c0f-508f-4214-b3dd-4929df20fb72/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.29.50_AM.png)
SPY Volatility, reset and correlation is diving, Iโd expect a sharp move down then sideways.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/1da4e6a3-6806-49b6-896e-b317a9c5895c/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.30.01_AM.png)
DIA ๐
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/4dfcec07-81d9-4b94-b059-de04e85eef22/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.32.24_AM.png)
DIA is the strongest index but has the smallest range. Itโs BULLISH as inflation comes back and commodites / industrials have pricing power.
Trend: BULLISH Since 9/1/23๐ข
Trade Signal: Neutral Since 9/12/23๐ก
Future Price Path: RISE Since 9/14/23๐ข***
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c624b6ef-dd53-4da5-8220-bab861035b18/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.32.33_AM.png)
Volatility is falling while correlation is falling, this is what makes a PRICE to RISE SIGNAL.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/7b3b6802-93ae-43df-b4f8-ff3280803911/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.32.43_AM.png)
Very tight TRADE RANGE. This will resolve and it should be violent when volatility resetsโฆthis week maybe a place to buy before the breakout.
QQQ ๐
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/9b00e240-e49b-4ef6-ae19-2dae9c6f3293/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.35.17_AM.png)
Tech continues to show the biggest range. Everything looks like we are ready to run into October.
Trend: BULLISH Since 8/31/23๐ข
Trade Signal: NEUTRAL Since 9/15/23๐ก***
Future Price Path: FALL Since 7/28/23**๐
Volatility has started to breakout. Correlation is negative, we could see down ward then upward moves rapidly over the next 5-10 days.
Flat range for now but itโs starting to go higher. The VOLATILITY BREAKOUT is appreciated to make this TRADE RANGE turn BULLISH.
IWM ๐ป
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/4e937bad-9e59-4c23-bf15-b080a5083748/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.42.16_AM.png)
Small Caps are giving a bad signal. Overall, we want to see these participate but they wonโt join the party. Unfortunate for now.
Trend: Bearish Since 8/16/23๐
Trade Signal: NEUTRAL/SHORT Since 9/15/23๐ก๐***
Future Price Path: FALL Since 9/14/23๐***
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/3ad16aab-056f-49e8-8190-4d7cb95a967f/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.42.24_AM.png)
Volatility is falling while correlation is rising, thatโs a negative.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/44b6b1a3-cab0-4245-9b78-a85928ea6060/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_8.42.31_AM.png)
TRADE RANGE is lower and lower. Not a good signal.
Enjoying this?
& Invite a friend.
New Highs $5-$20:
WIT - Information Technology Services (India ๐ฎ๐ณ)
UEC - Uranium ๐บ๐ธ
NXE - Uranium (Canada ๐จ๐ฆ)
UUU - Uranium ๐บ๐ธ
CCCS - Software - Infrastructure ๐บ๐ธ
SBS - Utilities - Regulated Water ๐บ๐ธ
HDSN - Specialty Chemicals ๐บ๐ธ
EC - Oil & Gas Integrated (Columbia)
CDLX - Advertising Agencies ๐บ๐ธ
ALTO - Specialty Chemicals ๐บ๐ธ
URG - Uranium ๐บ๐ธ
WIT - Information Technology Services (India ๐ฎ๐ณ)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/69e2f4b9-e51b-4f22-8796-ed5b7e281076/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.28.15_AM.png)
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UEC - Uranium ๐บ๐ธ
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NXE - Uranium (Canada ๐จ๐ฆ)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b87d9670-37b3-4c1c-b303-d32b9856011b/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.30.44_AM.png)
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UUU - Uranium ๐บ๐ธ
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CCCS - Software - Infrastructure ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/f3e1c68e-5f33-42f5-8f72-606aa6d40e44/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.33.19_AM.png)
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SBS - Utilities - Regulated Water ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/9144ab62-2272-47b3-b338-a5aeb0c21fc5/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.34.07_AM.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/396aa3e5-b900-4b89-8060-3c357f090f9d/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.34.13_AM.png)
HDSN - Specialty Chemicals ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/73a7aba6-6ccf-4934-9b9c-75c334a5e293/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.34.47_AM.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8b7b4c56-2d3d-4d86-b644-9f3e1042bffb/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.34.52_AM.png)
EC - Oil & Gas Integrated (Columbia)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a98c44d2-23a6-4f2e-b051-94cbf4215367/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.35.22_AM.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/87f50348-d647-471c-91b5-c9336d215447/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.35.30_AM.png)
CDLX - Advertising Agencies ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c1623910-0edf-4197-ae13-83ed9460fae5/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.36.01_AM.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8222de0b-fb61-4166-9fae-fc7aee9c3a74/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.36.07_AM.png)
ALTO - Specialty Chemicals ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a0f2b34f-95bf-4975-bc86-6df0cbe343c3/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.36.46_AM.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/110a0521-367a-4903-96b4-162006a6fb8b/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.36.53_AM.png)
URG - Uranium ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c9236ce0-605a-4f5f-b62e-75cd0bae6721/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.38.05_AM.png)
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Enjoying this?
& Invite a friend.
New Highs $20+:
ARRY - Solar ๐บ๐ธ
MNSO - Specialty Retail (China ๐จ๐ณ)
CTAS - Specialty Business Services ๐บ๐ธ
CHTR - Telecom Services ๐บ๐ธ
AMR - Coking Coal ๐บ๐ธ
TM - Auto Manufacturers (Japan ๐ฏ๐ต)
ARCH - Coking Coal ๐บ๐ธ
TNET - Staffing & Employment Services ๐บ๐ธ
BCO - Security and Protection Services ๐บ๐ธ
LEU - Uranium ๐บ๐ธ
XPRO - Oil and Gas Equipment Services ๐บ๐ธ
RELY - Software - Infrastructure ๐บ๐ธ
ARRY - Solar ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/f23b9673-e2ae-4393-b8f2-e36ca1f824fa/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.41.10_AM.png)
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MNSO - Specialty Retail (China ๐จ๐ณ)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ced0a18a-0efa-4357-9f75-dbfc96f89015/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.42.25_AM.png)
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CTAS - Specialty Business Services ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/3893e444-acd1-441f-b5e7-6096c85c70bf/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.43.10_AM.png)
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CHTR - Telecom Services ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/04052eaa-8211-4769-ab22-60c22460f4cc/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.44.00_AM.png)
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AMR - Coking Coal ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/09be988c-7f8a-47ee-92f6-3fda5894157d/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.45.31_AM.png)
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TM - Auto Manufacturers (Japan ๐ฏ๐ต)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/f89b7265-5101-4496-aff9-5fd4db5902b1/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.46.14_AM.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ec2dca47-650e-4bbc-b651-b310cbf0272c/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.46.28_AM.png)
ARCH - Coking Coal ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/d7d628ec-a517-413d-a8c6-255233d7df43/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.47.59_AM.png)
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TNET - Staffing & Employment Services ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/754d6300-9ba2-4917-8c3b-3054a9f33955/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.48.37_AM.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/29fe3c41-45db-40ae-858d-0dd03d0a8f4a/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.48.42_AM.png)
BCO - Security and Protection Services ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/df22eba8-cb8c-425f-bac1-3b3713455255/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.49.54_AM.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/81474a74-db45-4cbf-9720-da2ffec5e5e7/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.50.00_AM.png)
LEU - Uranium ๐บ๐ธ
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/873865e3-57ba-4eda-9b10-174c24ec3e8e/Screenshot_2023-09-17_at_9.50.36_AM.png)
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XPRO - Oil and Gas Equipment Services ๐บ๐ธ
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$META - Big fan right now. Good time to buy in with these signals.
Could be a fake out but I see BULLISH SIGNALS all over $META
โ Bootleg Macro (@bootlegmacro)
2:02 AM โข Sep 14, 2023
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