Bearishness in August Ravaged The Stock Market, Is It Over?

The Bootleg Macro Stock Market MACRO INDICATOR In This Edition Gave A Crystal Clear Answer. Read Here.

๐Ÿ‘‹ Welcome back. September 17th! ๐Ÿ Can you believe it? ๐Ÿ˜ณ

Homecoming season ๐Ÿˆ is kicking off across the USA. Iโ€™m ready for fall, ๐Ÿ I feel like a pumpkin ๐ŸŽƒ spice stock market ripper is upon us. What about you?

We have a lot of Uranium โ˜ข๏ธ, Coking Coal and Oil/Gas ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ names in the BREAKOUTS BELOW. What does it mean?

Industrials ๐Ÿญ are having a resurgence at all price points. Increased inflation brings VOLATILITY.

Weโ€™ve seen MASSIVE developments in the TURBULENCE indicator this week. The VOLATILITY CORNER has more but you may for this week at least appreciate the MICRO WEATHER โ˜€๏ธ flip.

Youโ€™re probably thinking, โ€œSay lessโ€. I will.

Lets get into it.

- Dustin

p.s.. if you read nothing else, Toyota Motors is at 52 week highs! (๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต ๐Ÿ‚!)

Market Performance

Friday was bad. Itโ€™s wasnโ€™t BULLISH ๐Ÿ‚. But we got an important indicator flip this week. Below on the VOLATILITY CORNER, youโ€™ll see the MACRO INDICATOR. We saw BULL MARKET ๐Ÿ‚ action in the MICRO WEATHER โ˜€๏ธ, which is positive.

We can highlight POSITIVE ROLLING RETURNS beyond 1 Month for ALL INDEXES. ๐Ÿ‚

Indexes are reflecting the BULLS ๐Ÿ‚ coming back into the market.

More upside potential than downside for the SPY500

The 15 Day Moving Average is Rising for The DOWโ€ฆand itโ€™s BULLISH. Good Signs.

Nasdaq continues to show the most strength. We respect the 13.5k line and expect a bounce from here.

If this was a stock, would you buy it? Yeah, the 10-year yield continues to break out higher.

The 5-year yield continues to break out higher too.

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. You see the up and downโ€ฆwe had a big move this week BOUNCING BACK BELOW the 10 Week, which isnโ€™t a big deal now but we hope it can prove to break higher.

The market has been choppy but not down. All indexes are positive over their 15 Day and longer for their rolling returns. Thatโ€™s a good signal considering how we saw the negative rolling returns in August 2023.

We expect BULLISH ๐Ÿ‚ action in the SHORT-TERM. This market will allow for CHOP ๐Ÿช“ and RANGES.

VIX 15 day SMA is down and price is underneath. We could see a slow bleed ๐Ÿฉธ out of VOL down to 12.50 or a snap explosion.

MACRO INDICATOR:

  • MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 12/2/22๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ‚

  • MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 9/11/23๐ŸŸข***(Never Forget ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ) ๐Ÿ‚

US Index ETF Review:

SPY ๐Ÿ‚

This is BULLISH but itโ€™s not the strongest move.

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 8/31/23๐ŸŸข

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 9/1/23๐ŸŸข

  • Future Price Path: Price to RISE Since 9/1/23๐ŸŸข

SPY Volatility, reset and correlation is diving, Iโ€™d expect a sharp move down then sideways.

DIA ๐Ÿ‚

DIA is the strongest index but has the smallest range. Itโ€™s BULLISH as inflation comes back and commodites / industrials have pricing power.

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 9/1/23๐ŸŸข

  • Trade Signal: Neutral Since 9/12/23๐ŸŸก

  • Future Price Path: RISE Since 9/14/23๐ŸŸข***

Volatility is falling while correlation is falling, this is what makes a PRICE to RISE SIGNAL.

Very tight TRADE RANGE. This will resolve and it should be violent when volatility resetsโ€ฆthis week maybe a place to buy before the breakout.

QQQ ๐Ÿ‚

Tech continues to show the biggest range. Everything looks like we are ready to run into October.

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 8/31/23๐ŸŸข

  • Trade Signal: NEUTRAL Since 9/15/23๐ŸŸก***

  • Future Price Path: FALL Since 7/28/23**๐Ÿ›‘

    Volatility has started to breakout. Correlation is negative, we could see down ward then upward moves rapidly over the next 5-10 days.

    Flat range for now but itโ€™s starting to go higher. The VOLATILITY BREAKOUT is appreciated to make this TRADE RANGE turn BULLISH.

IWM ๐Ÿป

Small Caps are giving a bad signal. Overall, we want to see these participate but they wonโ€™t join the party. Unfortunate for now.

  • Trend: Bearish Since 8/16/23๐Ÿ›‘

  • Trade Signal: NEUTRAL/SHORT Since 9/15/23๐ŸŸก๐Ÿ›‘***

  • Future Price Path: FALL Since 9/14/23๐Ÿ›‘***

Volatility is falling while correlation is rising, thatโ€™s a negative.

TRADE RANGE is lower and lower. Not a good signal.

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New Highs $5-$20:

  1. WIT - Information Technology Services (India ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ)

  2. UEC - Uranium ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  3. NXE - Uranium (Canada ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ)

  4. UUU - Uranium ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  5. CCCS - Software - Infrastructure ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  6. SBS - Utilities - Regulated Water ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  7. HDSN - Specialty Chemicals ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  8. EC - Oil & Gas Integrated (Columbia)

  9. CDLX - Advertising Agencies ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  10. ALTO - Specialty Chemicals ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  11. URG - Uranium ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

WIT - Information Technology Services (India ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ)

UEC - Uranium ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

NXE - Uranium (Canada ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ)

UUU - Uranium ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

CCCS - Software - Infrastructure ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

SBS - Utilities - Regulated Water ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

HDSN - Specialty Chemicals ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

EC - Oil & Gas Integrated (Columbia)

CDLX - Advertising Agencies ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

ALTO - Specialty Chemicals ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

URG - Uranium ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

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New Highs $20+:

  1. ARRY - Solar ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  2. MNSO - Specialty Retail (China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ)

  3. CTAS - Specialty Business Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  4. CHTR - Telecom Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  5. AMR - Coking Coal ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  6. TM - Auto Manufacturers (Japan ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต)

  7. ARCH - Coking Coal ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  8. TNET - Staffing & Employment Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  9. BCO - Security and Protection Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  10. LEU - Uranium ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  11. XPRO - Oil and Gas Equipment Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

  12. RELY - Software - Infrastructure ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

ARRY - Solar ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

MNSO - Specialty Retail (China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ)

CTAS - Specialty Business Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

CHTR - Telecom Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

AMR - Coking Coal ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

TM - Auto Manufacturers (Japan ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต)

ARCH - Coking Coal ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

TNET - Staffing & Employment Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

BCO - Security and Protection Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

LEU - Uranium ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

XPRO - Oil and Gas Equipment Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

RELY - Software - Infrastructure ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

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