Are you sure about that bull market?

Let’s not forget Jerome Powell – do you think he’s popping champagne or popping antacids over this? 🍾😬

Author

Bootleg Macro
November 19, 2023

Tough year to be named Sam, right? Too soon? 🤔📉

This is the speed of the world. We're introduced, fall in love, and fall out of love in moments. Stocks, themes, icons… they all ride the same rollercoaster. 🎢💔

In the words of Harvey Dent, “You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.” Seems like the tech and finance worlds are taking this quite literally! 😅🦸‍♂️🦹‍♂️

Shifting from people to situations. Take the bear market drop of October. Bears were the belles of the ball on Halloween. 🐻🎃🍾 But come November? It's as if they vanished into thin air. 🌬️🔍

Below the once-celebrated bears of October lay a wasteland of comments. “You’re wrong!”, “When does it go down again?”, “Help!” - All timestamped, all a display of fleeting predictions. ⏰💬

Just like SBF or, as of Friday, Sam Altman. One day you're in, and the next day... well, you know how it goes. 🚪👋 Times change fast – 🌞🌚

Remember, it's all about keeping the pace... or getting left behind. 🏃‍♂️💨

As always, we start with Market Performance, Volatility Corner, Index ETF Review then do the New Highs $5-$20 and New Highs $20+. It’s a good list today, watch for Uranium…it’s a winner.

- Dustin

Market Performance

Friday’s market close was like a magic trick – now you see it, now you don’t! 🎩✨ Small caps weren’t just walking, they were sprinting! $IWM? Up a whopping 5% for the week. How? Did they find a secret shortcut? 🏃‍♂️💨

But hold on, aren’t small caps still nursing a three-month hangover? 🍸📉 Talk about a plot twist! $IWM down (-2.69%) over the past 3 months!

And about peaking – did we just see the market’s version of 'The End'? In the volatility corner (spoiler alert 🚨), there’s a bit of drama with a rejection off the 23-week average. It’s like watching a soap opera – so much rally, so little time since Halloween. 🎃📈

We're already three weeks into this suspense thriller. What’s the next episode gonna bring? Cliffhangers everywhere!

Now, drumroll please... the S&P 500 (.INX) is strutting above 4,500! Cue the bullish fanfare 🎺🐂. But wait, is this for real, or are we in a financial fantasy land? 🌈💸 And let’s not forget Jerome Powell – do you think he’s popping champagne or popping antacids over this? 🍾😬

Stay tuned, folks. The market’s got more twists than a pretzel factory! 🥨🔄

You sure?

Tim Robinson

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Jerome Powell, the financial Santa of 2023 & 2024, seems to have a new hobby – call selling! 🎅📞 Looks like he’s prepping us for a Wall Street Christmas, folks! 🎄💼

Get ready for a festive market rollercoaster. 🎢 I'm betting we'll see a jolly mix of red and green on the charts – a bit like decorating the tree, but with stocks! 📉📈🎁

If the market hasn’t already taken a slide down the chimney, keep your eyes peeled. This holiday season might just come with its own set of surprises! 🤔🎉

This so incredibly bullish, I have to take a pause on it.

The stalling of bullish momentum on Friday is very suspect.

We’ve seen a very sharp move in the past 15 days. We should expect some digestion at the very least.

Volatility Corner:

VIX/VVIX just took a rollercoaster ride, folks! 🎢📉 The blue ling going up is like hitting the jackpot 💙🆙, but blue on the decline? That’s a no-no. 🚫💔 The blue line’s dance moves have a HIGH CORRELATION with the market’s rhythm. 🕺💹

And guess what? Blue just got cold feet at the 23-week average. It's like watching someone bail on a high-five! 🙅‍♂️✋

This, my friends, is not the best sign. Kind of like bumping into a 'bad hombre' in a market alley, lol. 😂🕶️ Time to tread lightly, if this blue rejection keeps up till the end of November, next week might just kickstart something new.

So, are we heading back to a BULLISH bash? 🐂🎉 Or have we overstayed our welcome at the bullish party? 🥳⏰ What's your bet on the next market move?

Have you seen a more BULLISH chart? The $VIX crush is our fuel.

MACRO INDICATOR:

🕒 Long-term, we are in a BEAR MARKET 📉🐻. Daily, we are in a BULL MARKET 📈🐂.

  • MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 10/27/22🛑

  • MICRO WEATHER: BULLISH Since 11/7/23🟢

US Index ETF Review:

SPY

It doesn’t make sense unless under $440 to even consider buying. I’d like a $420 share purely for musk-style irony.

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 11/9/23🟢

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/10/23🟢

  • Future Price Path: Price to RISE Since 11/8/23🟢

DIA

I’ll wait for a pullback here too.

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 11/7/23🟢

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/07/23🟢

  • Future Price Path: RISE Since 11/2/23🟢

QQQ

If we go higher, it’s tech leading the way. Same if we fall.

  • Trend BULLISH Since 11/08/23🟢

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/08/23🟢

  • Future Price Path: RISE Since 11/10/23🟢

IWM

Do you believe we’ve seen a trend change in Small Caps? Maybe we rally to $200. It would be the pain trade.

  • Trend: BULLISH Since 11/17/23🟢***

  • Trade Signal: Go LONG Since 11/6/23🟢

  • Future Price Path: RISE Since 11/2/23🟢

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New Highs $5-$20:

  1. PLTR - Palantir Technologies Inc. - Technology - US 🇺🇸

  2. AEO - American Eagle Outfitters Inc. - Retail - US 🇺🇸

  3. GPS - Gap Inc. (The) - Retail - US 🇺🇸

  4. AROC - Archrock Partners LLC - Energy - US 🇺🇸

  5. ELP - Companhia Paranaense de Energia - Chemicals - Brazil 🇺🇸

  6. BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. - Financials - ES 🇪🇸

  7. BGC - BGC Partners, Inc. - Financials - US 🇺🇸

  8. UEC - Uranium Energy Corp - Materials - US 🇺🇸

  9. BKD - Brookdale Senior Living Inc - US 🇺🇸

PLTR - Palantir Technologies Inc. - Technology - US 🇺🇸

$20 is a big level for PLTR - Does it hold?

AEO - American Eagle Outfitters Inc. - Retail - US 🇺🇸

This trend is steady as ever. The range expansion isn’t great but if volatility doesn’t pick up, I’m a believer.

GPS - Gap Inc. (The) - Retail - US 🇺🇸

What a year Gap has had in the stock market.

AROC - Archrock Partners LLC - Energy - US 🇺🇸

This is a high-flyer too. Be patient.

ELP - Companhia Paranaense de Energia - Brazil 🇧🇷

Interesting setup. Down dollar very much helped.

BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. - Financials - ES 🇪🇸

Emerging markets looked great when the dollar collapsed this week.

BGC - BGC Group, Inc. - Financials - US 🇺🇸

This is a steady trend.

UEC - Uranium Energy Corp - Materials - US 🇺🇸

Love to see the easy trends continue.

BKD - Brookdale Senior Living Inc - USA 🇺🇸

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New Highs $20+:

  1. URA - Global X Uranium ETF 🇺🇸

  2. APG - APi Group Corporation - Industrials - US 🇺🇸

  3. CTRE - CareTrust REIT - Real Estate - US 🇺🇸

  4. CLS - Celestica Inc - CA 🇨🇦

  5. LPG - LPG Holding LLC - Energy - US 🇺🇸

  6. VRNS - Varonis Systems - US 🇺🇸 

  7. BRZE - Braze - Technology - US 🇺🇸

  8. SKYW - SkyWest Inc - US 🇺🇸

  9. CUBI - Customers Bancorp - Financials - US 🇺🇸

  10. CCJ - Cameco Corporation - Energy - CA 🇨🇦

  11. STX - Seagate Technology Holdings plc - Technology - IE 🇮🇪

  12. ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Company - Retail - US 🇺🇸

  13. GE - General Electric Company - Industrials - US 🇺🇸

URA - Global X Uranium ETF 🇺🇸

This is the best charge, IMO on this entire list. It’s steady, it’s trending and it’s incredibly resilient. There have been a few months of opportunity to buy on a pullback.

APG - APi Group Corporation - Technology - US 🇺🇸

CTRE - CareTrust REIT - Real Estate - US 🇺🇸

CLS - Celestica Inc - CA 🇨🇦

LPG - LPG Holding LLC - Energy - US 🇺🇸

VRNS - Varonis Systems, Inc - US 🇺🇸

BRZE - Braze Holdings Inc. - Technology - US 🇺🇸

SKYW - SkyWest, Inc - US 🇺🇸

CUBI - Cubic Corporation - Industrials - US 🇺🇸

CCJ - CSX Corporation - Transportation - US 🇺🇸

Very nice trend. I’ll keep this one on watchlist for a down day.

STX - Seagate Technology Holdings plc - Technology - IE 🇮🇪

ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Company - Retail - US 🇺🇸

A remarkable move in a stock in 2023. This pony can run, do you really care about the company? Trend is at $57.78.

GE - General Electric Company - Industrials - US 🇺🇸

If you’re under 40 are you even tempted by GE? It’s a nice move, good breakout after consolidation for the late summer / early fall of 2023.

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