20 New Highs & Very Little Under $20 - Always Remember Carvana - It Can Happen Again!

Carvana went form over $200 to under $5 in under 2 years…it can happen again.

Author

Bootleg Macro
April 07, 2024

All 3 major US indexes were down for the week. An incredible opportunity for us.

It’s hard to find stocks breaking out below $20 now too! Which is a counter-intuitive bull market signal. Stocks will go higher and higher until they turn at the end. Then they will be back under $20 (ala Carvana in 2021 - 2023)

Carvana went form over $200 to under $5 in under 2 years…it can happen again.

Back to the indexes. Here is how I view the indexes in rank of best to worst opportunity:

- SPY, QQQ, DOW

It’s rare for SPY to be a better setup than QQQ. In 2024 we should expect the SPY to beat out the QQQ when it comes to performance. We will want a more broad sector mix if we want to continue to ride the winning month-to-date or quarter-to-date performance.

As you look at the bullish % of the entire market, did you ever think XLE would be the best performing sector of the entire market for Q1?

Nope, me either.

Here is the quilt of performance for each year since 2020. Didn’t expect XLE to be the best performer in 2021 and 2022.

Breadth will continue to expand and we use Q1 sector behavior as a guide for Q2. The only question is, “What will change?”

What do you think? I have an opinion and can be wrong. Much of the world will participate so this cycle we should anoint new “market- wizards”. Prepare to learn about new companies, money managers and ideas.

- Dustin

Market Performance

A full week of down performance for the week in all indexes. It’s been a while since we’ve seen similar market behavior. But last time this happened, what did we get 3 months later? Higher markets.

So I expect and suspect we get higher markets 3-6 months from now. And I suspect 12-18 months from now - something happens we don’t expect…

So keep following along and I’ll keep us updated.

What a week in the dow jones.

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX improved! Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets.

This is a reflection of the week we just had where all indexes were down together. This indicator is showing us the impact of the VIX breaking out this week.

Because of the way I view markets, I see this as a reflexive opportunity for upside in markets as the VIX collapses into the end of this month. I suspect we will see the VIX under 14 very shortly.

MACRO INDICATOR:

  • MACRO SEASON: BULLISH Since 12/2/22🟢

  • MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 3/5/24🟢

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New Highs $5-$20:

  1. NR - Newpark Resources, Inc. - Energy - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services - 🇺🇸 USA

  2. WTTR - Select Energy Services Inc - Basic Materials - Specialty Chemicals - 🇺🇸 USA

  3. LAUR - Laureate Education Inc - Consumer Defensive - Education & Training Services - 🇺🇸 USA

  4. PR - Permian Resources Corp - Energy - Oil & Gas E&P - 🇺🇸 USA

  5. YPF - YPF Sociedad Anonima - Energy - Oil & Gas Integrated - 🇦🇷 Argentina

  6. PNTG - The Pennant Group, Inc. - Healthcare - Medical Care Facilities - 🇺🇸 USA

NR - Newpark Resources, Inc. - Energy - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services - 🇺🇸 USA

WTTR - Select Energy Services Inc - Basic Materials - Specialty Chemicals - 🇺🇸 USA

LAUR - Laureate Education Inc - Consumer Defensive - Education & Training Services - 🇺🇸 USA

PR - Permian Resources Corp - Energy - Oil & Gas E&P - 🇺🇸 USA

YPF - YPF Sociedad Anonima - Energy - Oil & Gas Integrated - 🇦🇷 Argentina

PNTG - The Pennant Group, Inc. - Healthcare - Medical Care Facilities - 🇺🇸 USA

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New Highs $20+:

  1. REVG - REV Group Inc. - Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery - 🇺🇸 USA

  2. HIPO - Hippo Holdings Inc. - Financial - Insurance - Specialty - 🇺🇸 USA

  3. EDR - Endeavor Group Holdings Inc. - Communication Services - Entertainment - 🇺🇸 USA

  4. INFA - Informatica Inc. - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸 USA

  5. VNOM - Viper Energy Partners LP - Energy - Oil & Gas E&P - 🇺🇸 USA

  6. CALM - Cal-Maine Foods Inc. - Consumer Defensive - Farm Products - 🇺🇸 USA

  7. AAON - AAON, Inc. - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸 USA

  8. GKOS - Glaukos Corporation - Healthcare - Medical Devices - 🇺🇸 USA

  9. GDDY - GoDaddy Inc. - Technology - Software - Application - 🇺🇸 USA

  10. AMZN - Amazon.com Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - Internet Retail - 🇺🇸 USA

  11. META - Meta Platforms Inc. - Communication Services - Internet Content & Information - 🇺🇸 USA

  12. SPOT - Spotify Technology S.A. - Communication Services - Internet Content & Information - 🇱🇺 Luxembourg

  13. ETN - Eaton Corporation PLC - Industrials - Electrical Equipment & Parts - 🇮🇪 Ireland

  14. MLM - Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. - Basic Materials - Building Materials - 🇺🇸 USA

REVG - REV Group Inc. - Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery - 🇺🇸 USA

HIPO - Hippo Holdings Inc. - Financial - Insurance - Specialty - 🇺🇸 USA

EDR - Endeavor Group Holdings Inc. - Communication Services - Entertainment - 🇺🇸 USA

INFA - Informatica Inc. - Technology - Software - Infrastructure - 🇺🇸 USA

VNOM - Viper Energy Partners LP - Energy - Oil & Gas E&P - 🇺🇸 USA

CALM - Cal-Maine Foods Inc. - Consumer Defensive - Farm Products - 🇺🇸 USA

AAON - AAON, Inc. - Industrials - Building Products & Equipment - 🇺🇸 USA

GKOS - Glaukos Corporation - Healthcare - Medical Devices - 🇺🇸 USA

GDDY - GoDaddy Inc. - Technology - Software - Application - 🇺🇸 USA

AMZN - Amazon.com Inc. - Consumer Cyclical - Internet Retail - 🇺🇸 USA

META - Meta Platforms Inc. - Communication Services - Internet Content & Information - 🇺🇸 USA

SPOT - Spotify Technology S.A. - Communication Services - Internet Content & Information - 🇱🇺 Luxembourg

ETN - Eaton Corporation PLC - Industrials - Electrical Equipment & Parts - 🇮🇪 Ireland

MLM - Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. - Basic Materials - Building Materials - 🇺🇸 USA

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