It's Officially A BEAR MARKET.

Buckle up...we have dangerous moments ahead!

Author

Bootleg Macro
October 29, 2023

Open your history books 📚, we are about to make a new entry. That’s how significant this week 📆 is here at Bootleg Macro. Last week in our edition, “We’ve Run Dry!” I commented on how we are about to flip from a 🐂 BULL MARKET to a 🐻BEAR MARKET. Well, it’s official.

10/27/23 is the official date of a new 🐻BEAR MARKET for US Stocks. Since calling a 🐻BEAR MARKET requires precision, here is the last 🐻BEAR MARKET start and end data.

Most Recent Bear Market Data:

🏁Start Date: 12/3/2021

🏁End Date: 12/2/2022

Duration: 364 days

This begs the question, what about our ending 🐂BULL MARKET. When did it start and end? Good question, here are the answers.

Most Recent Bull Market Data:

🏁Start Date: 12/2/22

🏁End Date: 10/27/23

Duration: 329 Days

Here is what we know about the start of this 🐻BEAR MARKET.

1. 🪫Low Beta $SPHB > ⚡High Beta $SPLV

2. 🎪Mega Cap $MGC > ⛺Small Cap $IWM

3. 🔑Value $VTV > 🪴Growth $VUG (Honestly, these two are pretty balanced because everything goes down together eventually)

Now we’re officially in a bear market❄️…what kind of stuff can we even watch? What’s hot? That’s the aim of the NHN, we focus on what’s next to hit highs…

Well boy and girls, it’s clear to me…based on the reaction of the 5, 10 & 30 year yields…inflation☢️ is back. A hot war 💣 in the middle east doesn’t help oil 🛢️ production…it adds risk. Energy 🛢️ in all forms will see price support and demand. That’s where I can look for now. Commodities 🛢️🌾🐖, specifically energy at first are the place to watch for breakouts.

Tech was so 1H 2023…check out the $TSLA chart if you don’t believe. (Sorry Elon)

- Dustin

Market Performance

Friday was nonsense 😜. Considering we saw all indexes (ALL INDEXES) down over (-2%) for the week! This week provided clear and conclusive data 📊, we are entering a very risky period for US 🇺🇸 and GLOBAL 🗺️ markets. Rarely, do I mention GLOBAL 🗺️ markets but it’s obvious the US, Europe 🌍 and China 🌏 have major risks in their primary indexes.

If this was different, I’d gladly point out the bright spot. But we find ourselves on the bad side of a crisis. About to start it. The good side of a crisis is when it’s over. Well…I look forward to the moment in 2024 (hopefully) where we finally reverse off the bottom and fear is at an all-decade high.

Anyone trying to hide in Amazon ($AMZN) is going to regret chasing earnings. $130 is a line in the sand which will define history for 2023-2024. Does Amazon break $130 and hold it for 1 year? Doubtful. But one can hope.

If anything on this chart is terrifying it’s $MSFT, $META and $AMZN. Good earnings and couldn’t make new highs? Yikes.

The only positive is, maybe it can’t get much worse next week?

This was the best index for the week, lol. Only down (-2.14%), yet still terrible. Avoid.

Wow…The S&P500 is so bad right now. It’s ugly and deteriorating.

Volatility Corner:

VIX / VVIX deteriorated Blue up is good, blue down is bad. The blue line has a HIGH CORRELATION to overall markets. You see the up and down…it’s down…we went down. The signals are all bearish. It’s officially a BEAR MARKET.

If the $VIX was a stock, you’d buy it right now. It’s only going up!

MACRO INDICATOR:

Long-term, we are in a BEAR MARKET. Daily, we are in a BEAR MARKET

It’s officially a BEAR MARKET. Respect risk or live with the consequences.

  • MACRO SEASON: BEARISH Since 10/27/22🛑***

  • MICRO WEATHER: BEARISH Since 7/27/23🛑

US Index ETF Review:

SPY

Let this play out, you have no need to catch a falling knife.

  • Trend: BEARISH Since 9/27/23🛑

  • Trade Signal: Go SHORT Since 10/24/23🛑

  • Future Price Path: Price to FALL Since 10/16/23🛑

Seeing volatility breakout from a high-level is a concern.

Price at the bottom of the range with the trade range widening is an issue.

DIA

The DOW JONES isn’t being saved by anything.

  • Trend: BEARISH Since 10/2/23🔴

  • Trade Signal: Go SHORT Since 10/27/23🔴***

  • Future Price Path: FALL Since 9/21/23🔴

This is a dangerous setup. We can bounce higher or break lower…but regardless the move will be sharp and fast!

QQQ

We saw a slight bounce Friday…maybe this leads other indexes for a few days.

  • Trend BEARISH Since 9/29/23🔴

  • Trade Signal: Go SHORT Since 10/23/23🔴***

  • Future Price Path: FALL Since 10/16/23🔴

Breakout in volatility is huge here.

QQQ at the bottom of range and showing a very weak setup.

IWM

IWM continues to fall since we wrote 2 weeks ago, $168 was an important level.

  • Trend: BEARISH Since 9/29/23🔴

  • Trade Signal: Go Short Since 9/21/23🔴

  • Future Price Path: FALL Since 9/26/23🔴

The ugliest of all index ETFs is the small cap o

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

New Highs $5-$20:

  1. UGP - Gas Utilities

  2. AEO - Retailer

UGP - Gas Utilities

A great setup for a

AEO - Retailer

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

New Highs $20+:

  1. FRO - Oil Midstream

  2. X - Steel

  3. TNK - Oil & Midstream

  4. INSW - Oil & Gas Midstream

  5. LRN - Education Services

  6. DECK - Footware & Accessories

  7. FTI - Oil Service

  8. NAT - Transport/Non Air

FRO - Oil Midstream

X - Steel

TNK - Oil & Midstream

INSW - Oil & Gas Midstream

LRN - Education Services

DECK - Footware & Accessories

FTI - Oil Service

NAT - Transport/Non Air

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

What service do we provide the reader? (Save You Time 🕰️🕰️🕰️)

The Price🏷️ of Loving ❤️Stocks📈

The biggest price we pay for a love of markets is the time 🕰️. Screen time. Sitting watching. No moving, no living, it’s silent and the same. Stop wasting time. Subscribe and get a finely designed list of company stocks to your inbox every Sunday morning ready for review.

If you spend more than 2 hours looking at charts a month, we can save you time and money. For FREE, you will get 100+ reviewed tickers sent your inbox. Get smarter about the markets without drowning in charts and wasting your life on screen time.

Take a break from the markets, let someone else send you curated, aggregated and finely designed breakouts. We see new action everyday. You don’t want to miss out on the next chance to join.

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

Get Connected: Follow @BootlegMacro

Model Builder Course:

  • I have a course. You build the tool you see me using in the videos. You get to build your own version of the same model you see me use in every video. I’m adding to it over time as well so you’ll get all updates I do to the course forever.

    Thank you,

    BootlegMacro

Enjoying this?

& Invite a friend.

Disclaimer:
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
The information contained on this website has been prepared based on publicly available information and proprietary research. The author does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this document. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author and are subject to change without notice.
Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. Except where otherwise indicated, the information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and the author undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional materials.
The author, the author’s affiliates, and clients of the author’s affiliates may currently have long or short positions in the securities of certain of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
Neither the author nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein. In addition, nothing presented herein shall constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any security.

Enjoying this? Probably not, it’s the disclaimer.

& Invite a friend.